Commentary
Gensler to Supreme Court: “I Was There,” and Dodd-Frank Didn’t Make the CFTC a Sports Book
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — October 9, 2026: Gary Gensler was often a burr under the futures industry's saddle while he ran the CFTC. Now he is TradFi's best friend, filing amicus briefs telling courts sports betting isn't part of the Commodity Exchange Act and never...
The Constitution Is Market Infrastructure
Press freedom, due process, and the right to counsel are part of the plumbing of price discovery, and market leaders should defend them together
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — September 30, 2026: Last week I asked the leaders of our industry to speak up for CNN, MS NOW and Politico after President Trump banned them from the White House. My argument was simple. Markets run on information, and when the government decides which reporters get into the building based on whether it likes their stories, it shrinks the information that feeds price discovery. I hold freedom of the press and price discovery as sacred. Bans on freedom of the press give us fewer sources of important market information, which gives us a narrower answer.
A Weak Man’s Ban, and the Markets’ Responsibility
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — September 21, 2026: Markets are built on disagreement. A price is not a decree; it is not a social media post demand. It is a negotiated truce between people who see the world differently. The buyer thinks the asset is cheap, the seller thinks it is dear, and the number where they meet carries the compressed judgment of everyone with information and an opinion. Take away the disparate perspectives, and you do not get a cleaner price. You get a worse one.
That is why President Trump’s decision to bar CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House should alarm anyone who makes a living in the capital and derivatives markets. The decision was announced Friday on Truth Social as “effective immediately,” with a warning that other outlets would follow. The ban targets three organizations for reporting and commenting on the most powerful political office in the world. It took effect on Saturday, as journalists from these organizations were turned away when they tried to enter the White House. Whatever one thinks of their coverage, removing them from the room narrows the flow of information that reaches the American people and the rest of the world. Every trader knows what happens when a data feed goes dark.
CFTC Enforcement’s Black Hole: More Power, Less Policing
Former chief trial attorney Liz Pendleton questions the agency’s enforcement retreat as Michael Selig reaches for more authority over crypto and prediction markets.
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — September 18, 2026: Liz Pendleton, former CFTC chief trial attorney in Chicago, where she worked for the CFTC for more than 15 years, asked in a LinkedIn post, “What is happening with CFTC Enforcement?”
My answer involved quantum mechanics, Hawking Radiation, thermodynamics, and astrophysics, and came back in the form of a question. What happens in a Black Hole?
The Future of Nigeria’s First Regulated Prediction Market is Clouty
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — September 14, 2026: David Umeh recently returned to the United States from Nigeria, where he is weeks, if not days, away from regulatory approval from Nigerian market regulators to launch a futures exchange offering prediction markets. Umeh’s Clouty Inc. is in the final stage to become the first Nigerian SEC-approved regulated prediction market, operating under the trade name Sabi.
Umeh pursued launching a U.S.-designated contract market registration and had the CFTC pre-vet his plans. However, he was missing one piece: the capital to get the exchange off the ground. This young African American entrepreneur found in Nigeria not just an easier place to raise money, but a chance to corner an enormous, untapped market: the world’s sixth most populous country, with a hyper-engaged, famously polarizing news cycle. This is a country where Dangote just launched Africa’s largest-ever IPO, and where NGX was, just months ago, the best-performing stock market in the world.
Prediction Markets Start With “Why”
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — September 10, 2026: For weeks, I had been puzzled by Kalshi’s never-ending submarine-sandwich commercial, trying to decide what, exactly, it was meant to say about a prediction market platform. Then I saw the company’s 1950s Grease musical-themed spot, featuring four brothers dancing their way through a deliberately goofy production.
Because I no longer watch much NBA basketball, I did not recognize Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP and Kalshi investor who headlines the ad. I told a Kalshi executive I genuinely liked the commercial, and he shared with me who the star was. That small exchange made me look more closely at Kalshi’s marketing, not merely at the celebrities it is recruiting, but at the larger proposition behind the campaign. Prediction markets are no longer being positioned as a niche tool for political forecasters or sophisticated traders, but as a mainstream, multi-demographic social activity.
When the State Becomes the Sheriff
From Venezuelan crude to civil asset forfeiture, a conservative case that takings are takings — no matter who does the taking
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — August 31, 2026: I want to talk about takings. Expropriation or theft by the state.
The Trump administration’s recent announcement that it had a deal to take 20 percent of Venezuelan oil for no cost to the American public raised my conservative hackles. Yes, I have them. Property rights are the foundation of a free economy, and they do not yield to the political needs of the moment.
If this rogue American government is taking from Venezuela, who are they taking from next, I ask myself? Will they try to drain Lake Ontario/America to prove a point? Good luck!
The New Commodities: Electricity by the Hour, Computing Power by the Month
CHICAGO, IL (JLN) – August 25, 2026: Two announcements out of Chicago this month, taken together, tell a bigger story than either does alone. The financial markets are busy inventing brand new commodities, and both of them trace back to the same source: the enormous appetite of artificial intelligence for electric power.
On August 10, ElectronX, the Chicago-based startup exchange for electricity derivatives, announced it had received an amended order of designation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The change allows customers to trade on ElectronX through futures commission merchants, or FCMs, the brokerage firms that have long served as the front door to the futures industry. Intermediated trading is expected to begin this fall.
Welcome to the Beltway Bucket Shop: “Fake News,” Floral Mishaps, and Prediction Market Fireworks
From 2,500 unchallenged self-certifications to Michael Selig cutting off the CEO of the world’s largest derivatives exchange, the inaugural CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting was peak political theater.
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — August 21, 2026: Welcome to the wild world of Washington derivatives politics. Yesterday, I reviewed the video of CFTC Chairman Michael Selig kicking off the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee Meeting and the full meeting chaired by FIA President and CEO Walt Lukken. I might need to spin up whole new MarketsWiki categories to track the sheer volume of political theater. How about [[Category:Regulatory Pandering]], or [[Category:Gensler Rent-Free Zone]]? ([[Category:Regulatory Boogie-Man]] might be added too.)
Tuesday’s Promise at 25: A New Name, an Unbroken Vow to the Families of 9/11 and Their Military Successors
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — August 19, 2026: Some charities mark their 25th anniversary with a gala, a press release, and a slightly nicer version of the same logo. And then there is Tuesday’s Promise, the organization born out of the worst Tuesday morning in American memory, marking its 25th anniversary by doing something much harder. It is making a public, permanent promise to the families it has been walking beside since September 11, 2001, and to a second generation of American families who have paid the price for what happened that day: the survivors of the post‑9/11 military era.
On June 11, 2026, Tuesday’s Children officially became Tuesday’s Promise. The Manhasset‑based nonprofit has spent nearly a quarter of a century providing “support, connection, and hope to individuals and families impacted by traumatic loss,” and its leaders decided, after more than a year of work with staff, board directors, family members, and long‑time supporters, that the name needed to catch up with the mission. Thank you to my friend Silvia Davi for being part of that mission for the last eight years, highlighting the name change and new mission, and mentioning the upcoming 25th anniversary and plans for this year’s gala.
“Crypto Capital of the World” Is a Great Slogan. Now Try “Justice Capital.”
ELMHURST, IL (JLN) — August 18, 2022: The president and his many cryptophants want America to be the Crypto Capital of the World. On Wednesday, August 19, President Trump will sit down at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House on the White House grounds, along with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and a lineup of C-suites from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, Kalshi, a16z, and Paradigm to talk about how to make it happen. Fine by me. The photos will be good (just Photoshop out the sleeping president). The industry is happy. The CFTC’s new Innovation Advisory Committee is gavelled to order the next morning.
Correction: CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers Twice in 30 Days in Support of Kalshi, Six Times in Total
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN), August 12, 2026: A correction is necessary. I wrote that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had never invoked its emergency authority under Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act before July 14, 2026. That was wrong.
The CFTC has exercised that authority six times since its creation: four times between 1976 and 1980 and twice during the past 30 days. The accurate and still remarkable point is that the commission allowed its emergency power to remain dormant for 46 years before Chairman Michael Selig revived it twice, both times in support of Kalshi.
Why the CFTC Used Its “Nuclear Option” to Protect Kalshi
CFTC Invokes Emergency Powers Twice in Last 30 Days in Support of Kalshi
Publisher’s Note: A correction to this story was subsequently published reflecting that the CFTC has used its emergency authority a total of six times, including twice recently for Kalshi. Our apologies for the error.
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) – August 12, 2026: How many times has the CFTC invoked its emergency authority before July 14, 2026? Zero. That’s right, not during the Hunt Brothers’ silver market corner, or during the Maine Potato default, or during 9/11 or the financial crisis, or any other time.
Section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act is the CFTC’s nuclear option. It allows the commission, upon finding an emergency, to order a registered exchange to take whatever action the CFTC considers necessary to maintain or restore orderly trading. The merits of that emergency determination are generally insulated from judicial review.
And there is the legal strategy of CFTC Chairman Michael Selig: use the nuclear option to assert CFTC preemption over the states, avoiding any ambiguity about conflicting Federal court decisions on the CFTC’s authority, which I wrote about yesterday.
The Chairman’s Op-Ed Skips the Parts He’d Have to Litigate: Markets Price Uncertainty. Selig’s Essay Ignores.
The CFTC chairman makes a defensible case for innovation but undermines it by editing out unresolved questions.
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — August 11, 2026: CFTC Chairman Michael Selig chose The Economist to publish “The New Era of Finance Needs Innovation More Than Consensus.” That matters because The Economist serves a sophisticated international readership accustomed to ambiguity, competing legal interpretations and the complexities of global markets. Its readers expect contested claims to be identified, evidence to be supported and serious counterarguments to be confronted rather than written out of existence.
An Old Answer to a New Wager
A 1745 British law against wagering on maritime disasters offers the CFTC a precedent for banning wildfire event contracts.
WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — August 7, 2026: Nine Democratic senators, led by California’s Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla and Oregon’s Jeff Merkley, wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig this week demanding that the commission rein in prediction markets offering event contracts on wildfires. Their letter cites more than $1.2 million in bets on Polymarket’s offshore platform surrounding the Palisades and the Eaton fires that killed 31 people in Los Angeles in January 2025, and it relays a blunt warning from state and local fire officials: contracts that pay out on destruction invite someone to supply the destruction.
Old Downtown Chicago Trading Hub Becomes New AI Data Center
First Read Hits & Takes John Lothian & JLN Staff The former Cboe Global Markets trading headquarters at 400 S. LaSalle Street is undergoing a $300 million to $400 million conversion into a 33-megawatt AI data center by Legacy Investing and GI Partners, Natalie...
We visit more than 100 financial news websites daily (Would YOU do that?)
The Spread
Introducing “Auditions” – A JLN Topic Page for Market-Related Entertainment Content Creators
John Lothian News announces the upcoming launch of “Auditions,” a new space on johnlothiannews.com and the John Lothian Newsletter for entertainment content creators to introduce to the JLN audience their market related TV scripts, movie scripts, documentaries, short stories, books and poems. The official launch date is not set, but is coming soon.
Mogator Media Capital (Mogator Media Capital), along with writers Daniel F. Sullivan (Pencils with Erasers Podcast) and John Nuckel (JohnNuckel.com), are presenting the first audition, a script for a feature film titled “The Front Runner.” Based on a true story from the Chicago Board of Trade, the film chronicles a man’s attempt in 1992 to corner the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures market, albeit for a brief 15 minutes.
Hyperliquid Won Perpetuals. After $536 Million of Options Traded in September, Can It Win Options Too?
OBSERVATIONS Gensler to Supreme Court: “I Was There,” and Dodd-Frank Didn’t Make the CFTC a Sports Book WILLIAMS BAY, WI (JLN) — October 9, 2026: Gary Gensler was often a burr under the futures industry’s saddle while he ran the CFTC. Now he is TradFi’s best friend,...
