Goldman Sees Delayed Trump-Biden Election Call as a Trading Risk

May 10, 2024

Observations & Insight

Tradier is hosting a free virtual Options Summit on May 22nd at 10 AM ET, designed to help participants navigate market volatility and enhance their understanding of options trading. The event, sponsored by Cboe, features 12 speakers across an 8-hour schedule, covering topics such as timing trades during volatility, using options for portfolio protection, and spotting opportunities in fast-paced markets. Notable sessions include a keynote by Tradier CEO Dan Raju, insights into bot trading from Kirk DuPlessis of Option Alpha, and an exploration of the VIX curve by Andrew Giovinazzi. Other highlights include strategies from Rob Hoffman and Mandy Xu on navigating volatile markets, as well as insights into thriving during volatility from Markus Heitkoetter and Luis Silva. The summit will conclude with discussions on the impact of technology on finance and closing statements from Dan Raju and Lex Luthringshausen.

Also, Cboe Global Markets and Metaurus Advisors yesterday announced their collaboration to launch three new US equity indices by the end of 2024: the Cboe US Large Cap 100 Index, Cboe US Large Cap Lead 50 Index, and Cboe US Large Cap Lag 50 Index. These indices will leverage Cboe’s expertise in derivatives-based indexing and Metaurus’ Dynamic Reassignment technology. Additionally, plans are underway to develop tradable futures products based on these indices, pending regulatory approval. ~JJL


Don Byron of FIA Discusses Efforts to Enhance Interoperability and Standardization in Derivatives Markets

At the FIA International Futures Industry Conference in Boca Raton, FL in March, Don Byron, senior vice president at FIA, discussed the organization’s initiatives to address interoperability challenges and drive standardization across derivatives markets. Byron spoke to John Lothian News as part of the JLN Industry Leader video series sponsored by Wedbush.

Watch the video »


Lead Stories

Goldman Sees Delayed Trump-Biden Election Call as a Trading Risk; ‘I think there’s going to be some recounts,’ David Kostin says; VIX curve shows traders not pricing in risk of prolonged vote
Alexandra Semenova, Emily Graffeo, and David Marino – Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says traders trying to game out the upcoming presidential campaign are missing one big risk: No decision on election night.
It’s entirely plausible that Americans won’t know who their next president is on Nov. 5 or the days to come, considering President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are roughly even in national polls. And a prolonged decision could spur a surge in market volatility that investors aren’t pricing in, said David Kostin, the bank’s chief US equity strategist.

High-Risk Options Bet on Bond Rally At Risk of Losing Millions; Risk reversal has unlimited upside and downside payouts; Inexpensive position may be a hedge or a volatility wager
Edward Bolingbroke – Bloomberg
For at least one Treasury options trader next week’s inflation data could produce either a windfall or a catastrophic loss.
A low-cost position entered into during the US session Thursday stands to mint around $15 million if the 10-year Treasury note’s yield — currently around 4.5% — reaches 4.25% by May 24. It would lose just as much, however, if the 10-year yield rises to around 4.7%.

The bond market liquidity ‘trilemma’
Robin Wigglesworth – Financial Times
Good sellside research is like busses; you wait for ages for something interesting to turn up, and then a bunch rolls into your inbox all at once.
This was the case late last month, when Barclays published the 69th instalment of its annual Equity Gilt Study, with several fascinating chapters. We’ve already written up the sections on the impact of a consolidated tape on European credit and the flood of Treasuries hitting the market, so let’s make it a hat-trick and dive into the chapter on

The ‘Fed Put’ Is Back, and That’s Great News for the Stock Market
Jacob Sonenshine – Barron’s
Markets had thought the Fed “put” was dead. But the possibility of its return is growing stronger.

ETF buying nearly halves in April as US rate cut hopes recede; Aversion to risk spurs sharp fall to equity ETFs while government bond ETF flows tick up
Steve Johnson – Financial Times
Investors pulled in their horns in April as diminishing prospects for near-term US interest rate cuts drove a broad aversion to risk, global data on exchange traded fund flows indicate.
However, there were still signs of animal spirits in some corners of the global market with solid demand for some cyclical assets, such as European and Japanese equities and emerging market debt.

Bitcoin ETFs helped drive the crypto’s price higher. That may no longer be the case.
Frances Yue – MarketWatch
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been an important driver of the cryptocurrency’s price since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved them for trading in January — with the excitement around the new ETFs pushing bitcoin to a record high in March.
However, things have started to change.

Indian shares see worst week since mid-March as volatility, foreign selling weighs
Bharath Rajeswaran and Hritam Mukherjee – Reuters
Indian shares ended higher on Friday, but logged their worst week in eight as concerns over the outcome of ongoing national elections and selling by foreign investors weighed on sentiment.
The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab was up 0.44% at 22,055.20 points, while the S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab advanced 0.36% to 72,664.47, at close.


Cboe Global Markets and Metaurus Advisors, LLC Announce Plans to Launch Three New Innovative Equity Indices
Cboe and Metaurus collaborate to develop three new US equity indices: the Cboe US Large Cap 100 Index, the Cboe US Large Cap Lead 50 Index, and the Cboe US Large Cap Lag 50 Index. Leverages combined strengths of Cboe’s derivatives-based indexing capabilities and Metaurus’ Dynamic ReassignmentSM technology. Plans to develop tradable futures products based on indices, subject to regulatory review. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), the world’s leading derivatives and securities exchange network, and Metaurus Advisors, LLC (Metaurus), an asset management company focusing on financial innovation, today announced plans to collaborate on three new US equity indices: the Cboe US Large Cap 100 Index, the Cboe US Large Cap Lead 50 Index (the Cboe Lead 50), and the Cboe US Large Cap Lag 50 Index (the Cboe Lag 50). The indices are targeted to launch by the end of 2024.

Trading on Crypto Exchanges Fell for First Time in Seven Months
Olga Kharif – Bloomberg
Trading volume on major crypto exchanges fell in April for the time in seven months while market bellwether Bitcoin retreated from a record high. Spot trading volume on so-called centralized exchanges such as Coinbase Global, Binance and Kraken tumbled 32.6% to $2 trillion last month, according to data from researcher CCData. Derivatives trading volume also declined for the first time in seven months, falling by 26.1% to $4.57 trillion. While trading volume skyrocketed earlier in the year on the introduction of US exchange-traded funds investing into Bitcoin, it slackened amid a tightening of financial conditions in the US, where the Federal Reserve faces the challenge of overcoming sticky inflation. The April 19 Bitcoin halving – when supply of new coins minted on the network dropped in half – was a catalyst for market excitement beforehand.

CME Group Inc. Announces Preliminary Results from its 2024 Annual Meeting of Shareholders
CME Group
CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME) today announced the preliminary shareholder voting results from its 2024 annual meeting.

Regulation & Enforcement

US Election and Sports Betting With Derivatives Face Ban by CFTC; CFTC proposes clamping down on so-called events contracts; Plan further dashes bid to allow betting on November elections
Lydia Beyoud – Bloomberg
A top financial regulator took a major step toward directly banning derivatives from being used to bet on political contests and sports games — throwing up another hurdle for those hoping to wager on November’s US election.
The proposal Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would crack down on so-called event contracts. Those binary options have been used to bet legally on real-world outcomes such as monetary policy, lunar landings and music awards and are of increasing interest to Wall Street.

Elon Musk may be compelled to testify again in SEC’s Twitter takeover probe
A federal judge on Thursday indicated a willingness to compel Elon Musk to testify again in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s investigation into his $44 billion takeover of Twitter.
Lawyers for the billionaire appeared in a San Francisco courtroom on Thursday to urge U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley to decide against the SEC, which is seeking to force Musk to testify as part of its probe into his 2022 purchase of social media giant Twitter. Another judge previously ruled in favor of the agency.

White House Poised to Nominate CFTC’s Johnson to Treasury Role; Kristin Johnson would take on key banking policy role; Senate confirmation no guarantee, could create split at CFTC
Lydia Beyoud, Josh Wingrove, and Akayla Gardner – Bloomberg
The White House is poised to nominate Kristin Johnson, a Democratic commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to fill a top role at the US Treasury Department overseeing banks, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.
The announcement is expected to be made public soon, according to the people who asked for anonymity to speak about the matter. The White House, Johnson and the CFTC declined to comment on the nomination.


Fireside Friday with… Ninety One’s Sally Bartunek; The TRADE sits down with Sally Bartunek, trader at Ninety One, to discuss the key talking points on the firm’s trading desk, the expected implications of the shift to T+1 later this month, and the current liquidity landscape and ways to navigate it.
Wesley Bray – The Trade
What’s been the main topic of conversation on your desk over the last month? One topic is that US data has been surprising to the upside and the economy has remained resilient. We’re watching economic data closely because they can give indications on when the Fed could act on their rates decision. While a cut is clearly not happening at the next meeting, the stronger than expected data has caused volatility in rates, therefore filtering down to other markets that impact our investment decisions.

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