First Read
Hits & Takes
John Lothian & JLN Staff
I spent some time this holiday weekend working on a scorecard for “Prediction Markets vs. States — Open Cases and Timeline.” I am not the only one who has been busy tracking this data. Alexander Kim, an associate at Katten, has built a personal interactive map, with AI-generated visualizations tracking all the cases. In both cases, Kim’s and mine, this is for information only, not legal advice, and you are encouraged to verify all information independently. We both make no representations of the accuracy or completeness of the information presented. But it is interesting and it is a start.
Miami International Holdings, Inc. reported record year-to-date trading metrics for March 2026, with its MIAX Exchange Group capturing a 17.3% U.S. multi-list options market share, up from 16.0% a year earlier, and reaching a record YTD average daily volume of 10.9 million contracts, a 26.6% increase over the same period in 2025. While overall U.S. equity options and equities industry volumes also rose double digits year-on-year, MIAX Pearl’s U.S. equities market share edged down to 0.9%, and MIAX Futures’ average daily volume fell 39.9% year-to-date compared with 2025.
Intercontinental Exchange reported record trading activity for March 2026, with total volume hitting an all-time monthly high of 428.9 million contracts, more than 70% above the prior record set in January, and total average daily volume up 88% year-on-year, led by strong gains across commodities, energy, oil and interest rate futures, where ADV rose 140% and open interest 60%. The company also posted record first-quarter ADV, up 45% from a year earlier, with notable strength in natural gas, environmental, agricultural, metals and financial products, and raised its full-year expense guidance as higher trading-related costs are expected to be more than offset by robust revenue growth.
ElectronX has launched hourly intraday power futures and binary options for the PJM Interconnection market, offering 1 MWh contracts across four PJM hubs, two interfaces, and one zone to help participants hedge short‑term price volatility driven by surging demand from data centers and infrastructure projects. Backed by nearly 50 early members including ENGIE, Gunvor Group, and Soma Energy, the CFTC-regulated exchange positions the new PJM suite as a complement to its ERCOT contracts and plans to expand similar products to MISO, CAISO, and other U.S. grid operators in the coming months.
If you think JP Morgan’s [[Jamie Dimon] may be right in warning that private credit losses could be larger than expected, as reported by Joshua Franklin in the Financial Times, then the latest episode of Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson’s Power and Consequences podcast, “Episode Six: Private Credit Under Pressure,” is worth a listen. The episode explores whether recent strains in private credit resemble a “run,” questions whether investors fully understand the risks and liquidity constraints of the asset class, and examines the broader policy implications as regulators consider expanding access to retail investors through 401(k) plans. Framed with historical context and current market developments, the discussion adds timely perspective to a growing debate over transparency, valuation, and systemic risk in private markets.
I am not Catholic, but I like this Chicago-born Pope and his message. In his first Easter address, Pope Leo XIV urged world leaders and ordinary believers alike to reject a “globalization of indifference” and call for peace in a world “ravaged by wars,” warning that we are growing accustomed to violence and the deaths of thousands. Speaking against the backdrop of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and fresh Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, he said God rejects the prayers of “those who wage war.” He appealed to those with weapons to lay them down, and stressed that Christ’s power is “entirely nonviolent.” Without naming specific leaders, Leo implicitly countered calls from U.S. officials to pray for military victory, instead urging dialogue over domination, announcing a peace vigil at the Vatican, and insisting that “we cannot continue to be indifferent” or resign ourselves to evil.
The Masters used to be about nothing more complicated than who could hit the most precise shots under the most suffocating pressure in golf. Augusta National was a cathedral to shotmaking and nerves, and the only “market” that mattered was the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon. Now, layered on top of the azaleas and Amen Corner, is a growing universe of prediction markets that invites fans not just to watch Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, or Rory McIlroy chase the green jacket, but to trade on every twist in that chase in real time.
Offers like “trade $10, get $10” for Masters markets on Kalshi make that shift explicit, turning the tournament into an event for speculators as much as for traditional golf fans. Instead of just debating who has the best approach game or whose putter will cooperate, audiences are nudged to think in terms of probabilities, prices, and edge—treating Augusta as another data-rich event to be sliced, modeled, and monetized. Golf is still the same, but the economic layer around it is changing fast, and the Masters is becoming a showcase not only for elite players but also for how deeply prediction markets are weaving themselves into the fabric of marquee sporting events. Isn’t anything sacred anymore?
Michael S. Rosenwald of The New York Times has published an obituary for Orion Samuelson more than two weeks after his death, titled “Orion Samuelson, the Elvis Presley of Agricultural Radio, Dies at 91.”
Here are the headlines from in front of FOW’s paywall from some recent stories:
- EDX Markets files application to set up national trust bank
- Canada regulators warn of enforcement risk as prediction markets face increased scrutiny
- SEC announces agenda, panellists for roundtable on options market structure
- CFTC sues three states to protect prediction markets
- OCC cleared volume up 23% to a new monthly record in March
- Kaiko integrates Bruce Markets data to improve equity perpetual pricing
- Deepcoin partners with Polymarket to launch events contracts
Have a great day and stay safe and treat people the same way you want to be treated: with respect, equality, and justice.~JJL
*****
I have heard that Apple’s new headquarters is amazing. I think I have seen better. Last weekend, I visited the headquarters of Epic (health database systems) just a few miles from Madison, Wisconsin. It is difficult to describe this place. The best I can do is if Disneyland were an office park. It is incredible. All buildings are accessible via tunnels/skywalks (although navigating those is a mystery). Wisconsin has winters so no need to ever walk outside…although that is certainly a thing there too when the weather is nice. And then you see the theater for weekly (yes, weekly) staff meetings that hold about 14,000 people… and there are two of them (again… weekly staff meetings that fill them). And then you see the multiple tower cranes building more…something. And then you realize this is a privately owned company. You need to register to visit. Very much worth it…just know it is a LOT of walking, and you will be forever bummed that wherever you work is nowhere near as cool. Bring the kids too. They’d actually like it. (Let that sink in…offices that your kids would like.) ~JB
Our most-read stories from our previous edition of JLN Options were:
- Hedge Funds Walloped by a Month of Turmoil Sparked by War from Bloomberg.
- ‘Big Short’ Legend Steve Eisman Says Iran War Is Running The Entire Stock Market Right Now Benzinga via Yahoo Finance.
- Index Insights: March 2026 from Cboe. ~JB
Subscribe to the JLN Options Newsletter HERE (it’s free).
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Gensler Warns of Threats to Regulator Independence as Prediction Market Risks Grow
JohnLothianNews.com
SARASOTA, FL (JLN) — April 2, 2026 — Former SEC and CFTC chairman Gary Gensler warned that the independence of key US regulatory agencies is being eroded, arguing that political pressure on bodies such as the Department of Justice, FHFA and FCC risks undermining both democracy and economic opportunity, in a wide-ranging interview with John Lothian alongside MIT economist and Nobel laureate Simon Johnson. Gensler, now a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, said US capital markets remain “the deepest, most liquid and I would say the leading capital markets” because of strong institutions and independent regulators, but he sees “a challenge to the independence of many of those regulatory agencies” when companies are implicitly threatened with investigations or license loss for failing to align with the administration.
Watch the Gary Gensler and Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Johnson video »
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Power & Consequences: Gensler and Nobel Laureate Johnson Take MIT Policy Debates to Podcast Listeners
JohnLothianNews.com
SARASOTA, FL (JLN) ― April 2, 2026 ― Former top U.S. markets regulator Gary Gensler and Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Johnson are turning their MIT classroom dynamic into a public forum with “Power & Consequences,” a new podcast aimed at unpacking complex policy debates for a broader audience. The show grew out of their work editing “The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration” for the Center for Economic Policy Research, a dense volume drawing on more than 50 specialists, which they now want to translate into more accessible conversations.
Watch the Gary Gensler and Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Johnson video »
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| Sponsored Content | |
OSE’s new FX futures will initially cover three major currency pairs Launching at the same time, OSE will also introduce two new cash-settled precious-metals contracts: Pocket Gold 100 Futures and Pocket Platinum 100 Futures. These products feature smaller contract sizes of 100 grams each, making them significantly more accessible than OSE’s standard precious-metals futures (1 kilogram for gold and 500 grams for platinum). Both contracts will list a single annual maturity, expiring in December of each year. As cash-settled futures, they allow investors to settle positions based on the difference between the final settlement price and the contract price, eliminating the need for physical delivery and enhancing trading convenience and operational efficiency. With these new offerings, Osaka Exchange continues to expand investor choice, lower barriers to entry, and deliver efficient risk-management solutions across both FX and precious-metals markets. Market participants are encouraged to explore how these products can support portfolio diversification and trading strategies. For further details, please visit the Osaka Exchange website. |
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Former Trump Aide Alleges $400 Million Market Manipulation Tied To Trump: ‘A Financial Operation’
Rishabh Mishra – Benzinga
Skybridge Capital co-founder and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci alleged Friday that President Donald Trump‘s administration orchestrated a massive insider trading scheme tied to geopolitical announcements that yielded up to $400 million in illicit profits. In a recent video statement on X, Scaramucci detailed highly suspicious trading activity occurring just one hour before Trump announced a five-day moratorium on Iran strikes. According to Scaramucci, insiders purchased $1.5 billion in notional S&P E-mini futures contracts. This was about four to six times the normal market volume. This took place alongside a simultaneous purchase of $192 million in crude oil futures.
/jlne.ws/3ObUQD4
***** Anthony Scaramucci is a Substack truth teller.~JJL
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Stocktwits to Offer CME Futures Data
Press Release – Traders Magazine
Stocktwits to Offer CME Futures Data By Press Release April 6, 2026 Stocktwits, the leading social platform for investors and traders, announced that its users can access interactive charts, streaming prices and dedicated cashtag pages for futures symbols spanning the full suite of CME Group regulated futures contracts across equities, FX, cryptocurrency, energy, agriculture, metals and interest rates markets.
/jlne.ws/4slqfAZ
****** What could possibly go wrong when you give the YOLO crowd access to CME curves and a cashtag for everything from SOFR to lean hogs?~JJL
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Hitler’s Edifice Complex; He was obsessed with adding an expensive new wing to the Reich chancellery, part of his grandiose architectural ambitions for the nation’s capital.
Timothy W. Ryback – The Atlantic
He wanted it big. He wanted lots of gold, lots of marble. He wanted visitors awestruck by his architectural expansion of the country’s symbolic seat of power. “They should sense the strength and grandeur of the German Reich as they walk from the entrance to the reception hall,” Adolf Hitler told his chief architect, Albert Speer, outlining his plans for an extension to the old Reich chancellery, at Wilhelmstrasse 77 in Berlin. The new annex, connected to the chancellery by a marble corridor hung with crystal chandeliers, was part of Hitler’s ambitious plans to align the Berlin cityscape with his vision for the future of the country. Hitler wanted a Triumphbogen, a triumphal arch, twice the size of the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. He wanted an “Avenue of Splendor” for military parades. “The Champs-Elysees is a hundred meters wide,” Hitler told Speer. “We will make our avenue twenty meters wider.” A planned Volkshalle was to accommodate 180,000. The Eiffel Tower could fit beneath its cupola. This “Hall of the People” was to be topped by the largest swastika on Earth. Berlin itself was to be rechristened as Weltstadt Germania, “Capital of the World.”
/jlne.ws/4e5xd9U
******* This seems oddly familiar, in a grand ballroom kind of way.~JJL
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Friday’s Top Three
Our most clicked item on Friday was Lewis Black’s comedic rant about prediction markets on The Daily Show, via YouTube. Second was CME Group reports record volumes as rates and energy drive Q1 surge, from FOW. Third was US sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois to stop regulation of prediction markets, from Reuters.
Lead Stories
IMF Warns Tokenized Finance Risks Amplifying Market Crises Ahead
Melos Ambaye – Bloomberg
Moving Wall Street’s trading infrastructure onto blockchain-based systems could accelerate financial crises beyond regulators’ ability to respond, even as the technology promises to cut costs and eliminate settlement delays, the International Monetary Fund says. Tokenization — the act of representing assets like stocks, bonds and cash as digital tokens on shared ledgers — is a structural overhaul of financial architecture rather than a marginal efficiency gain, the IMF’s Tobias Adrian wrote in a report published on Thursday. Banks, clearing houses and asset managers including BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are already running live pilots to test a technology that they hope will boost fees by making it easier to trade traditional assets like stocks and bonds.
/jlne.ws/4sTS8Bk
On Iran, Trump Keeps World Off Balance With Ever-Changing Threats; Global leaders are struggling in their efforts to find a way to end the American-Israeli war on Iran, and they are spooked about what President Trump might do next.
Michael D. Shear – The New York Times
The world is on edge. One minute, President Trump says the war in Iran is nearly over. The next he says it will continue for weeks. He brags that Iran has been “eviscerated,” but then vows that the fighting will go on. A huge bombardment, he says, might begin in five days, or 10 days, or on Tuesday at precisely 8 p.m. Eastern. If the president means what he says, the world could be about 24 hours from a devastating escalation in the war. But like the producer of a television cliffhanger, Mr. Trump seems determined to keep everyone off balance. On that, at least, he is succeeding.
/jlne.ws/4sNDmfs
Why Is U.S. Oil Trading Higher Than Brent?
Joe Wallace – The Wall Street Journal
You might be surprised to see West Texas Intermediate oil prices above those for benchmark Brent. In fact, WTI contracts are still cheaper than comparable Brent prices. The apparent premium is a function of how the two contracts work, and the huge supply shortfall thanks to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI contracts are for oil delivered to a pipeline junction at Cushing, Okla. Oil changes hands one month after futures contracts expire. Right now, the nearby contract expires in April, for oil that will be delivered in May.
/jlne.ws/4c81nqC
Jamie Dimon warns private credit losses will be larger than feared; JPMorgan chief raises alarm on weakening lending standards in annual shareholder letter
Joshua Franklin – Financial Times
JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon has warned that losses for lenders to highly indebted companies will be higher than many expect because of weakening lending standards, as concerns grow around the health of the $1.8tn private credit industry. Such non-bank lending has grown rapidly in the past decade as regulation has driven banks such as JPMorgan out of some parts of the market.
/jlne.ws/41ORPMd
Jamie Dimon Cites Risks From War, Private Credit, Inflation and More
Andrew Ross Sorkin, Bernhard Warner, Sarah Kessler, Michael J. de la Merced, Niko Gallogly, Brian O’Keefe, Ian Mount and Grady McGregor – The New York Times
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase is out with his annual letter, and we’ve got the details. In it, he raises questions about the valuations of private credit funds, but he says the industry probably doesn’t represent a systemic risk. While he is relatively bullish on the economy, he offered this downside scenario: “The skunk at the party — and it could happen in 2026 — would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down. This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.”
/jlne.ws/4tvloOO
The Iran War Just Broke the Petrodollar
Aaron Brown – Bloomberg Opinion
The virtuous loop that has seen America underwrite stability in the Middle East in exchange for Gulf states recycling their dollar revenues into US Treasuries has been broken. The understanding traces back to 1974, when Henry Kissinger struck one of the most consequential financial deals in modern history. Saudi Arabia would price its oil in dollars and park the surpluses in US assets — Treasuries above all. Other Gulf states followed. In exchange, America provided security guarantees and a stable global order.
/jlne.ws/4tsykoq
OpenAI Advocates Electric Grid, Safety Net Spending for New AI Era
Rachel Metz and Shirin Ghaffary – Bloomberg
OpenAI has released a set of policy recommendations meant to help navigate an era of artificial intelligence-fueled upheaval — including suggesting the creation of a public wealth fund, fast-response social safety net programs and speedier electrical grid development. In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a range of policies related to AI “superintelligence” — often referred to as software that can outperform humans at all kinds of tasks, but which does not currently exist.
/jlne.ws/4siQGYf
Dimon Urges US to ‘Get Stronger,’ Keep Economic, Military Power
Hannah Levitt – Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the US needs to “get stronger” in order to maintain its military and economic might, and detailed his bank’s plans to deploy more than $1 trillion to ensure that happens. “With the right policies and committed actions, the United States will maintain the strongest military and strongest economy and will remain the bastion of freedom and the arsenal of democracy,” Dimon wrote in a letter to shareholders Monday. But “no country has a divine right to success.”
/jlne.ws/4sP9j7b
Nevada Extends Kalshi Ban: Details
MEXC News
Nevada judge Jason Woodbury extended the ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state and ruled that these products constitute unlicensed gambling under state law. Announcing that he issued a preliminary injunction at Friday’s hearing in Carson City upon the request of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the judge prohibited the company from offering bets on the outcomes of sports, election, and entertainment events to Nevada residents. According to Reuters, the decision extends the temporary restriction from March 20 to April 17.
/jlne.ws/4bTCCzx
Betting on the verdict: Kalshi case could shape prediction markets
Jenna Greene – Reuters (commentary)
As legal challenges mount against prediction market operators, traders have responded fittingly: by betting on whether Kalshi will win a major pending case. Current odds favor industry pioneer Kalshi. As of publication time, bettors on a rival prediction platform put the probability at 94% that New York-based Kalshi will prevail in an appeal against New Jersey. The state claims Kalshi violates New Jersey gambling laws by allowing wagers on sporting events, but it lost before the district court last year.
/jlne.ws/4coc7Cp
Global financial platform Marex moving to Lexington Ave
Steve Cuozzo – New York Post
Global financial platform Marex is on the move. The firm will leave 2 Grand Central Tower for Rudin’s 560 Lexington Ave., where it will have 39,552 square feet. The asking rent was $84 per square foot. Marex was represented by JLL’s Matthew Astrachan, Seth Godnick and Krissy Kopans. The landlord was repped by CBRE’s Peter Turchin, Brett Shannon, Eric Deutch and Jacob Rosenthal.
/jlne.ws/4c79qUl
World Conflicts
Ukraine Invasion
Exclusive: Ukraine missile maker targets ‘game changer’ air defence system by 2027
Max Hunder and Daniel Flynn – Reuters
Fire Point, maker of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile, is in talks with European companies to launch a new air defence system by next year, a senior executive told Reuters, creating a low-cost alternative to the increasingly hard-to-get Patriot system. With governments seeking to defend their skies as the wars in Ukraine and Iran sow global instability, Fire Point’s co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman said it aimed to slash the cost of intercepting a ballistic missile to below $1 million.
/jlne.ws/4c9IvY6
Ukraine defies West by striking Russian oil refinery
Joe Barnes – The Telegraph
Ukraine has appeared to defy calls from allies to stop striking Russian energy facilities amid the global oil and gas squeeze triggered by war in Iran. Russian officials claimed that Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery operated by Lukoil and a Baltic pipeline near St Petersburg.
/jlne.ws/4m8tqdS
Russia’s Key Black Sea Oil Terminal on Fire, NASA Data Show
Bloomberg
Russia’s key Black Sea oil terminal caught fire following an overnight drone attack, according to satellite images from NASA. Monday satellite images from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System show fresh blazes in the Novorossiysk port area, where Transneft PJSC’s Sheskharis terminal is located. State-run oil-pipeline operator Transneft did not immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for a comment on the current situation in Sheskharis.
/jlne.ws/4t185pE
Ukraine’s drones dent Russia’s war-fuelled oil windfall; Moscow’s disrupted energy exports add pressure to markets already reeling from Iran conflict
Anastasia Stognei and Max Seddon and Christopher Miller – Financial Times
Ukrainian drone attacks in the Baltic are hampering Russia’s ability to benefit from a crude rally driven by the Middle East war and exposing the weaknesses of the country’s anti-drone defences. The Kremlin has admitted that Russia has limited capacity to protect its crucial energy export facilities from the blowback of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, now dragging into its fifth year.
/jlne.ws/47LCWxM
Ukraine and Syria pledge security deal in unexpected military alliance
Sasha Vakulina – Euronews
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy arrived in Damascus in a surprise visit on Sunday, for his first official visit to Syria after the fall of the pro-Russian al-Assad regime. Ukraine and Syria pledged greater security cooperation in talks in Damascus on Sunday as Kyiv pushes to deepen security ties across the Middle East amid Moscow’s ongoing full-scale invasion and the Iran war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Syria and the meeting with interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa marked Zelenskyy’s first trip to the country since Syria’s dictator Bashar al-Assad was ousted in 2024.
/jlne.ws/48tTYk6
Middle East Conflict
Iran and US receive proposal for 45-day ceasefire and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
The Associated Press
Iran and the United States received a draft proposal late Sunday calling for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, two Mideast officials speaking condition of anonymity told The Associated Press. The proposal comes from Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators hoping the 45-day window would provide enough time for talks to reach a permanent ceasefire. Iran and the U.S. have not responded to the proposal, which was sent to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff, the officials said.
/jlne.ws/4dwbPdU
Iran has formulated its response to ceasefire proposals, foreign ministry spokesperson says
Reuters
Iran has formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, adding that negotiations were “incompatible with ultimatums and threats to commit war crimes.” Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran had a set of requirements based on its national interests that had already been conveyed via intermediary channels, adding that earlier U.S. demands such as the 15-point plan were rejected for being “excessive.”
/jlne.ws/4veNf7q
UAE says the use of Hormuz must be guaranteed in any US-Iran deal
Samia Nakhoul and Maha El Dahan – Reuters
UAE official Anwar Gargash said any settlement of the U.S.-Iran war must guarantee access through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that a deal that fails to rein in Iran’s nuclear programme and its missiles and drones would pave the way for “a more dangerous, more volatile Middle East.” Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told a weekend briefing that the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical oil artery – cannot be weaponised, stressing that its security is not a regional bargaining chip but a global economic imperative.
/jlne.ws/4bUG1hB
Iran ‘repairing missile bunkers within hours’
Fiona Parker – The Telegraph
Iran is returning missile bunkers to operation within hours of them being struck by American and Israeli bombs, according to intelligence reports. The reduction in Iranian drones and missile attacks since the war began has been cited by the White House as proof that it is eliminating Tehran’s ability to strike targets in the Gulf.
/jlne.ws/4bTFMDh
China Started Preparing for an Energy Crisis Long Before the Iran War
Alexandra Stevenson – The New York Times
The energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East caught China, the world’s top buyer of oil, by surprise. But Beijing has been preparing for a crisis like this for years. China has stockpiled increasingly large amounts of oil. It has pursued renewable sources of energy like solar, wind and hydropower so aggressively that its demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline is falling. And it has harnessed technology to reduce its reliance on the foreign-sourced raw materials that go into the massive output of its factories.
/jlne.ws/4sjzdPr
Japan’s Takaichi Seeks Talks With Iran’s Leader Before Ultimatum
Sakura Murakami – Bloomberg
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she is looking to hold talks with Iran’s leader and possibly also a separate call with Donald Trump, as the clock ticks on the US president’s latest threat to bomb key Iranian infrastructure. “We are currently making preparations for leadership level talks,” Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said of talks with Iran during a parliamentary session Monday. “We will continue to do everything in our power to find an off-ramp to this situation and return to peace.”
/jlne.ws/41iQVYh
The Iran War May Be Permanently Rewiring Global Energy Security; Cambridge Professor Helen Thompson warns that energy disruption triggered by the US-Israel attack on Iran is exposing deep vulnerabilities.
Sommer Saadi and Merryn Somerset Webb – Bloomberg podcast
/jlne.ws/4c79EuD
Hormuz Traffic Rises to Highest in Weeks
Weilun Soon and Julian Lee – Bloomberg
/jlne.ws/4t5B5w8
US Request Prompts Planet Labs to Withhold Iran War Images
Aaron Clark and Akriti Sharma – Bloomberg
/jlne.ws/4sl89iO
Even if Iran’s regime outlasts Trump, it may not survive reconstruction of the shattered economy, Mideast expert says
Jason Ma – Fortune
/jlne.ws/4mgYKaz
Israel’s War on Hezbollah Is Pitting Lebanon Against Itself
Sarah Dadouch – Bloomberg
/jlne.ws/41P7Vp7
Exchanges, OTC & Clearing
Energy Exchange ElectronX Launches Intraday Power Contracts for the PJM Interconnection Market
ElectronX – PR Newswire
ElectronX, the energy exchange built to enable precision risk management in electricity markets, today announced it has launched hourly bounded futures and binary options designed to manage short-term volatility in the PJM Interconnection LLC (PJM) market. Contracts are available in 1 MWh sizes on ElectronX’s direct-access platform, enabling new financial hedging strategies for a region experiencing dramatic increases in power prices amid demand pressure from data center and physical infrastructure development. The largest grid operator in the U.S., PJM serves 67 million customers across 13 states and the District of Columbia, representing more than 180,000 MW of generation supply.
/jlne.ws/3Q3S7fC
A rival plans to take on the ASX as Australia’s third trading venue
Joyce Moullakis – Australian Financial Review
The ASX is set to come up against another rival trading venue for stocks, as the National Stock Exchange of Australia ramps up its plans, seeking to gain support from brokers and investors to challenge the main bourse and up-for-sale competitor Cboe Australia. The NSX, acquired last year by the owner of the Canadian Securities Exchange, CNSX Global Markets, will on Tuesday announce an upgrade of its equities platform to facilitate trading of ASX-listed stocks. As part of the plan, the NSX is in talks with the corporate regulator and stockbrokers, and the exchange has identified a data centre location in Sydney from which it plans to operate.
/jlne.ws/4c6km4H
Borsa Istanbul : Announcement On Procedure For Theoretical/Reference Price Calculations In Cases Of Corporate Actions
Mondovisione
/jlne.ws/48wSk1c
Cboe imposes $75k fine on Global Execution Brokers
Maria Nikolova – FX News Group
Global Execution Brokers, LP has agreed to pay a fine of $75,000 as a part of a settlement with Cboe Exchange, Inc. From on or about December 17, 2022, through the present, Global Execution Brokers, LP (GEB) failed to establish, document, and maintain risk management controls and supervisory procedures reasonably designed to manage the financial risks of its market access business activity.
/jlne.ws/41OaN5B
CME Group announces BrokerTec Global Front End Client upgrade
Maria Nikolova – FX News Group
On Wednesday, April 8, there will be a new BrokerTec Global Front End (GFE) Client 11.9 software upgrade.
/jlne.ws/4mamq0a
Intercontinental Exchange Reports March and First Quarter 2026 Statistics
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), one of the world’s leading providers of financial market technology and data powering global capital markets, today reported March 2026 trading volume and related revenue statistics, which can be viewed on the company’s investor relations website at https://ir.theice.com/ir-resources/supplemental-information in the Monthly Statistics Tracking spreadsheet.
/jlne.ws/4c7WxJY
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices Amid Affordability Reset and Inventory Growth
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), one of the world’s leading providers of financial market technology and data powering global capital markets, today released its April 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which finds that the spring housing market began on stronger footing, buoyed by improved affordability and slowly rebuilding inventory, despite the recent uptick in interest rates. “Mortgage rates bottomed near 5.95% early this year, pushing affordability to its best levels in four years and helping drive two of the firmest monthly home price gains we’ve seen in over a year,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Since then, 30‑year rates have risen roughly 40 basis points, pulling about four percent of buying power back out of the market and reshaping conditions from those early‑year peaks. Even so, 99 out of 100 major markets still saw improved affordability from a year ago, and inventory continues to rebuild. That combination is helping this spring market feel better supplied and more balanced than in recent years, even as rate volatility reasserts itself.”
/jlne.ws/4cqP7CF
Miami International Holdings Reports Trading Results for March 2026
MIAX
Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) (NYSE: MIAX), a technology-driven leader in building and operating regulated financial markets across multiple asset classes, today reported March 2026 trading results for its U.S. exchange subsidiaries — MIAX®, MIAX Pearl®, MIAX Emerald® and MIAX Sapphire® (collectively, the MIAX Exchange Group), and MIAX Futures™.
/jlne.ws/4scLMMh
FinTech
Artificial Intelligence
The real impact of AI on SaaS isn’t what investors think
Sheryl Estrada – Fortune
Good morning. Fears that AI could render traditional software vendors obsolete triggered a broad SaaS and cloud sell-off in February, a rout that some investors dubbed “SaaSpocalypse.” The catalyst: Anthropic’s addition of a legal task plug-in to its Claude AI, which wiped roughly $285 billion in tech market value within 24 hours.
/jlne.ws/4vcHHun
AI agents have stolen a lot of jobs from humans over the past year: Chart
Brian Sozzi – Yahoo Finance
The AI agents are laughing all the way to the paycheck line, while humans walk hunched over to the unemployment line. Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng warned in a new note that the substitution of artificial intelligence has reduced monthly payroll growth by about 25,000 jobs and raised the unemployment rate by 0.16% over the past year. At the same time, AI augmentation — the use of AI tools by human workers — has added 9,000 jobs to monthly payroll growth and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06%.
/jlne.ws/4bS6HPY
An Inside Look at OpenAI and Anthropic’s Finances Ahead of Their IPOs
Berber Jin and Nate Rattner – The Wall Street Journal
OpenAI and Anthropic are racing toward potentially record-breaking initial public offerings by the end of the year. An inside look at the financials of both companies prior to funding rounds completed earlier this year shows their Achilles’ heel: the soaring costs needed to train new artificial intelligence models.
/jlne.ws/4sjKijA
Why You Should Ignore AI FOMO — For Now
Jackie Bischof and Shona Ghosh – Bloomberg
Welcome back to The Forecast from Bloomberg Weekend, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade. This weekend we’re looking at AI FOMO, and the possibility that new productivity tools will keep us working longer. Plus, the moon race is back on. AI Productivitymaxxing Will Burn Us Out Last year, Microsoft Corp. software engineer Victor Dibia described a curious feeling while using artificial intelligence in his work. Like many other developers, he was an early adopter of Anthropic’s Claude Code AI agent, and used it to write and correct his code. He figured that using agents to pick up tasks would be akin to delegating work to a junior, freeing up time.
/jlne.ws/41hP8mc
Wary Of News Media, Silicon Valley Builds Its Own
Alex Pigman – Barron’s
When OpenAI acquired the tech podcast TBPN this week, it wasn’t just buying a show — it was buying a message. The move laid bare a strategy that Silicon Valley has been perfecting for years: ditch the tech-sceptics of the traditional press, and build your own media. TBPN is in many ways a tribute to mainstream news, with co-hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays — both from the venture capital world — presenting a three-hour show daily from a studio in Los Angeles that resembles a business or sports program on a cable news network. But Coogan and Hays insist they are not journalists, even if they line up interviews with key figures in the industry who offer insightful access to the Silicon Valley world.
/jlne.ws/3QkaNb2
Tokenization
Broadridge Live with On-Chain Governance for Tokenized Equities, Extending Market Infrastructure into Digital Assets
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. – prnewswire.com
Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. (NYSE: BR) today announced the extension of its governance platform to support digital assets. This new capability enables public companies and funds, broker-dealers and wealth managers, and retail and institutional investors to manage proxy voting, corporate actions, and disclosures across both traditional and tokenized securities within their existing platforms and workflows. This new tokenized equity capability complements Broadridge’s market-leading tokenization capabilities, which already process $8 trillion in tokenized assets per month. As tokenization gains momentum across financial services, Broadridge is delivering the critical governance infrastructure necessary to support digital asset adoption and growth at scale.
/jlne.ws/4mj3mx2
Connectivity/Data Centers
Is AI the new fracking? The backlash against data centres chimes with energy Nimbyism of the past
Rana Foroohar – Financial Times
Are data centres becoming the new fracking? It’s a question I first saw posed in a Strategas research report back in February. Since then, growing AI backlash makes me think the answer is yes. While Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and others are expected to spend around $700bn building out data centres in North America this year, these “hyperscalers” are starting to face pushback about the implications of the technology. The economic and market consequences could be significant.
/jlne.ws/4mdNSKl
Payments
Russian crypto payment system expands into Africa; Videos show A7 office in Nigeria, while company also claims new branch in Zimbabwe
Polina Ivanova and Jacob Judah – Financial Times
A recent vacancy posted on a Russian recruitment site sought a project manager to build a business “from scratch” in Togo, West Africa. The employer would be A7, a Russian cryptocurrency network under western sanctions, run by a fugitive oligarch and a state defence sector bank. The advert is the latest sign that Moscow is seeking to build an alternative payments system after its banks were cut off by the west in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
/jlne.ws/4sakVjT
US payments group with $20bn market value aims to boost UK truck electrification; Corpay is partnering with Voltempo in building UK’s largest charging network for electric lorries
Kana Inagaki – Financial Times
A $20bn US corporate payments group is targeting the UK to boost the truck industry’s slow electric transition on the back of surging diesel prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Atlanta-based Corpay will partner with Voltempo, which is building the UK’s largest depot charging network for electric lorries, to create a system that will link charging infrastructure, fleet payments and electricity supply to make it more economically viable for businesses to switch from diesel to electric.
/jlne.ws/4dqEsJj
Cybersecurity
North Korean Hackers Spent Six Months Infiltrating Drift Before $285M Exploit – Decrypt
Vismaya V – Decrypt
Solana-based decentralized exchange Drift Protocol said on Sunday the attack that drained roughly $285 million from the platform was a structured six-month intelligence operation by a North Korean state-affiliated threat group. The attackers used fabricated professional identities, in-person conference meetings, and malicious developer tools to compromise contributors before executing the drain, the protocol said in a detailed incident update.
/jlne.ws/47JWEKk
Cryptocurrencies
Stablecoins
Editorial | Stablecoin launch delay shows Hong Kong would rather be safe than sorry
South China Morning Post
Better safe than sorry – that seems to be why authorities have delayed the stablecoin roll-out. Industry players had expected the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the city’s de facto central bank, to announce the granting of a small number of stablecoin licences at the end of March. But the date came and went. The regulatory review process appears to be taking longer, given the regulators’ well-known cautious stance. But the policy – to make Hong Kong a digital-asset hub with stablecoins playing a key role – has not changed. There is no need to rush. Rather, to gain people’s confidence, it’s best to iron out any issue and avoid technical glitches or bugs.
/jlne.ws/4sfdoR2
Inside the Stablecoin stampede, as mainstream financial giants rush to cash in on the crypto coin
Lydia Moynihan – New York Post
Stablecoins processed $33 trillion last year — 20 times the amount of transactions that PayPal did. And now, financial giants like BlackRock, credit cards like Visa and crypto ventures like World Liberty Financial are racing to get in on the cryptocurrency, which allows money to be transferred instantly and with minimal fees. At least, that is the verdict from a gathering of heavyweights at the Future Investment Initiative in Miami, where I interviewed Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, World Liberty Financial co-founder Zach Witkoff and Maja Vujinovic, CEO of Digital Assets at FG Nexus, about how the digital asset will transform our financial systems.
/jlne.ws/4m8H4O8
Politics
King Charles Can Handle a Boorish White House
Martin Ivens – Bloomberg Opinion
US President Donald Trump has declared on his social-media website that Britain should “go get your own oil” from the Persian Gulf and sneers, “you’ll have to start learning to fight for yourself, the USA won’t be able to help you anymore.” His defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, mocks “the big bad Royal Navy” too. To judge by this warmup, the timing of King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s visit to Washington next month is unpropitious. Often, when the Anglo-American relationship is going through a sticky patch, His Majesty’s Government likes to send the royals to smooth ruffled feathers — but usually not while a quarrel is in full swing. Still, there are precedents for playing this gilt-edged diplomatic card.
/jlne.ws/4tpzYXX
Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway – Bloomberg
The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that’s being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy.
/jlne.ws/3PRELTH
Republicans can stop following Trump whenever they want | Opinion
Rusty Hills – USA TODAY
Affordability seems to be the pressing issue for the November elections. But I would argue another “A” word is the key to Republican chances in 2026: Appeasement. Look, I know that a lot of Republican candidates and officeholders are afraid of President Donald Trump and fearful of angering his core base of supporters, no matter what he says or does. To avoid that fate, they have swallowed hard and sought to appease Trump and MAGA by falling in line. But now might be a good time to rethink that strategy. A bit of advice to those who want to win in the midterm elections: Appeasement is not a good strategy.
/jlne.ws/41d3ggD
Slavery’s Atrocities Had Many Global Masters
Stephen Mihm – Bloomberg Opinion
Two numbers — 123 and three — quickly became the focal point of reactions after the United Nations General Assembly voted to declare the trafficking of Africans in the transatlantic slave trade the “gravest crime against humanity” and affirmed the need for reparations. They represent the nations that voted for and against the resolution. The willingness of the US to vote against the proclamation drew predictable condemnation in the press and on social media. But the 52 nations that abstained from voting — entering what could be described as a collective plea of nolo contendere — didn’t get enough attention.
/jlne.ws/4dvm5D9
U.S. Administration
Why DOGE’s legacy is hard to measure
Diane Brady – Fortune
Good morning. The U.S. could be about two weeks away from ending the war with Iran or one day away from unleashing “all hell” on the country, the latter of which President Trump reinforced Sunday in a crude social post. One reason it’s hard to know is that the formerly Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency gutted the 80-person team in the State Department charged with leading international energy diplomacy earlier this year.
/jlne.ws/4ma77o9
Is Trump the President Who Lost Asia to China?
Mihir Sharma – Bloomberg Opinion
For at least a decade, developing countries across Asia and Africa have worried about growing dependent on China. They’re concerned about debt traps, coercive policies, and hidden costs that might push their economies toward crisis. Crisis has come, and that logic has been turned on its head. After six weeks of the US and Israel’s war on Iran and its ensuing counterattacks, it is the countries that bet on Chinese supply chains that are faring better than the ones that trusted Pax Americana.
/jlne.ws/4cs5wqz
How the Department of Justice became a feeding ground for MAGA lobbyists
The Economist
“Three into two? You must sue.” That was the verdict that Mike Davis, a firebrand conservative lawyer friendly with Donald Trump, posted online in late January last year. The proposed merger of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Juniper, two of America’s top three suppliers of wireless networking gear, alongside Cisco, appeared to Mr Davis to be a clear danger to market competitiveness. The Department of Justice (DoJ) agreed. Earlier that day it had sued to block the merger.
Trump Warns Iran He Could Strike ‘Every Power Plant,’ in WSJ Interview
Meridith McGraw – The Wall Street Journal
President Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants if the country’s leaders don’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran. “If they don’t come through, if they want to keep it closed, they’re going to lose every power plant and every other plant they have in the whole country,” Trump said in an eight-minute interview with The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.
/jlne.ws/4tuTW3A
Trump’s $400 Million Ballroom Is an Affordability Fumble
Nia-Malika Henderson – Bloomberg Opinion
Tearing down a wing of the White House and building a massive ballroom paid for by billionaires and corporate donors could not have been on any voter’s wishlist for President Donald Trump’s second term. And yet, here we are.
/jlne.ws/41P3jPP
U.S. Congress
America’s Diplomat Shortage Is a Self-Inflicted Wound
The Editorial Board – Bloomberg
The White House’s struggles to negotiate an off-ramp in Iran are a reminder of how crucial skilled diplomacy can be. Yet the State Department appears intent on purging and politicizing the ranks of the nation’s top envoys. Congress has a duty to push back. Out of 195 ambassadorial postings around the world, more than 110 sat empty as of early March — including in countries as vital to US interests as Germany and South Korea. Nearly three dozen of those openings were created after the administration abruptly recalled a slew of career diplomats at the end of last year.
/jlne.ws/4bTxQ55
Other U.S. Politics
US judge upholds block of subpoenas in criminal investigation of Jay Powell; James Boasberg declines US attorney Jeanine Pirro’s request to revisit earlier decision in probe into Federal Reserve chair
Claire Jones – Financial Times
A US judge has declined to revisit a ruling that quashed the Department of Justice’s efforts to subpoena Jay Powell, in the latest setback for prosecutors in the criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair. James Boasberg, a DC District Court judge nominated by former US President Barack Obama, on Friday declined a motion from Jeanine Pirro, US attorney for the District of Columbia, to reconsider his decision to block subpoenas issued by her office.
/jlne.ws/4veKV0c
United Kingdom
Trump is hastening Britain’s return to the EU; Economics, security and domestic politics all point the Starmer government towards Brussels
Gideon Rachman – Financial Times
Last week, Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer both gave big speeches to the nation. Trump’s effort reminded me of Macbeth’s verdict on life: “A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury/Signifying nothing.” Starmer’s felt more like a tale told by a lawyer, empty of drama or panache — but quietly significant. The prime minister’s address was the most pro-European speech that he has given since winning power. Starmer spoke of the need to be bolder in building a partnership with the EU “for the dangerous world that we must navigate together”. There is an ambitious vision lurking behind those words. Future historians may look back on his speech as a crucial step down the long and winding path that will eventually lead Britain back into the EU.
/jlne.ws/4c4qLNJ
China
Taiwan opposition leader to visit China as Beijing ramps up ‘reunification’ push
Reuters
Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun leaves on Tuesday for China and a potential meeting with President Xi Jinping on what she says is a peace mission as Beijing makes a renewed push to convince Taiwanese to support “reunification”. Cheng, chairwoman of the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s largest opposition party, is travelling at a time of increased Chinese military pressure on Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory, and as the opposition-dominated parliament stalls a government plan for $40 billion in extra defence spending.
/jlne.ws/3PVTdKo
Regulation & Enforcement
AI has arrived in auditing. Are regulators ready? The technology is already leading to rapid changes in the way company accounts are reviewed
Stephen Foley – Financial Times
EY’s global leadership team had a peek late last month at the powerful AI tools about to be rolled out across its audit business. The firm’s technologists showed a revamped EY Canvas audit platform with features that dramatically speed up the corporate risk assessment used to plan an audit, ping staff as they work with relevant accounting guidance, and pre-fill work papers that document their progress. EY’s claim is that, as the Canvas update goes live this month, audit work will not just be faster but more thorough, more likely to catch fraud and ensure the accuracy of the financial statements on which our capital markets rely.
/jlne.ws/4sgh2Ko
How Trump became tech’s regulator-in-chief; His interventions in the sector exceed anything the EU has done
Marietje Schaake – ft.com
In the US, I am often asked — as the only European in the room — to justify why the EU is so heavy-handed in regulating tech companies. I am frequently told that America’s hands-off approach to regulation is the key to its unabated tech success. This is bemusing and a little concerning. The reality is that President Donald Trump’s executive decisions to intervene in tech companies directly are more radical than anything I have ever witnessed in the EU.
/jlne.ws/4sg0vGa
CFTC Chairman Selig Announces Deputy General Counsel Appointments
CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced Stephen D. Andrews and M. Jordan Minot have been named deputy general counsel for regulation and litigation, respectively.
/jlne.ws/4c5NI38
SEC Charges New York-Based Investment Adviser and Its Principals in Alleged $138 Million Offering Fraud
SEC
On April 3, 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged registered investment adviser A.G. Morgan Financial Advisors, LLC and its principals, Vincent J. Camarda and James E. McArthur, with allegedly perpetrating an offering fraud that raised at least $138 million from at least 431 investors.
/jlne.ws/4t5LcB6
ESMA clarifies expectations in the run-up to the launch of EU’s Consolidated Tapes
ESMA
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s financial markets regulator and supervisor, has published Questions and Answers (Q&As) on the onboarding of data contributors to the EU’s Consolidated Tapes (CTs), and on the operational rules for the Consolidated Tape Providers (CTPs). The goal is to increase certainty for all market participants in anticipation of the go-live of the EU’s CTs for bonds and for equities.
/jlne.ws/4vff7ID
FCA and Bank seek members for their Transaction and Post-trade Reporting Taskforce
FCA
The FCA and Bank of England (Bank) invite expressions of interest from market participants to join a new taskforce.
/jlne.ws/3PLwkcI
Investing & Trading
One of the Stock Market’s Last Havens Is Now at Risk
Krystal Hur – The Wall Street Journal
One of the last places to hide from this year’s stock-market turbulence is in danger. Value stocks, or shares trading at low multiples of their book value, have quietly marched toward a banner year. Now the war in the Middle East is threatening to upend the trade, leaving investors few places to find refuge from fears over everything from rapid advances in artificial intelligence to geopolitical conflict. The Russell 1000 Value Index is up 2.4% so far this year, beating the Russell 1000 Growth Index, which is down 9.1%, by the largest margin since 2022. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index is down 3.8% and recently notched its worst quarter in nearly four years.
/jlne.ws/47LM7OK
Opinion | Trump Wants to Liberate 401(k)s
The Editorial Board – The Wall Street Journal
The Trump Administration last week proposed a legal safe harbor for employers that want to diversify 401(k) investments beyond stocks and bonds. Cue Democrats and trial lawyers flogging troubles in private credit to warn the proposal will endanger retirement savings. According to this narrative, the Labor Department is blowing open 401(k)s to risky investments that could include Trump meme coins. Sorry, not true. The Labor Department is proposing to clarify that employers don’t violate their fiduciary duty merely by incorporating private equity, real estate and other “alternative” investments in 401(k) fund options.
/jlne.ws/4miSrDy
Oil Shock Is Adding Stress to the Global Economy
Phil Serafino and Lynn Thomasson – Bloomberg
Energy squeeze Oil markets have been pitched into turmoil by the war in Iran, and the effects will likely be long lasting and far reaching. After a meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ warned that the damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the conflict ends. And with US inflation data coming out later this week, the sudden increase in gasoline prices felt by American consumers is set to be on full display. Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon.
/jlne.ws/4vcC6nP
Tech Stocks Powered Retirement Portfolios For Years. Now AI Is Crashing The Party
John Hyatt – Forbes
Most retirement funds have long reaped the benefits of tech dominated stock indexes driving compounded annual returns. Now the AI boom is upending software valuations, straining Big Tech’s spending model, and threatening millions of nest eggs. Since the 2008 financial crisis, retirement savers have benefited from the sustained surge in technology stocks, which have consistently outperformed traditional value allocations. The Nasdaq-100 delivered roughly 17% annualized returns from 2009 through 2025, while the tech-weighted S&P 500 indexes chugged along healthily at 11% annually over that period. The arrival of AI initially accelerated that trend. Investors and fund managers poured money into mega-cap tech stocks like Microsoft, Google and Meta on the belief that their huge AI capital expenditures will unleash productivity and new business opportunities. Software firms also continued to perform well, driven by the assumption that AI would increase the value of software rather than replace it. That assumption has not held.
/jlne.ws/4smtmJd
The war’s economic impact could get worse for Americans
David J. Lynch – The Washington Post
Amazon is adding a fuel surcharge to its e-commerce deliveries. Mortgage rates have risen to their highest mark in seven months. And consumers may soon see higher prices for soda bottles and detergents. These are all early indications of the Iran war’s impact on the U.S. economy. So far, the costs of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign have been modest, especially compared with the economic turmoil roiling Asia, and U.S. growth remains solid. On Friday, the Labor Department said employers added a robust 178,000 jobs in March.
/jlne.ws/3PR3Y0C
If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight
John Authers – Bloomberg Opinion
Time to Sell the F****** Market? Last week, the global stock market reacted to some noises out of Iran suggesting that a negotiated settlement could happen as though it marked a major inflection point in the war. After the best rally in months on Tuesday, those gains stayed intact into the quiet Easter weekend period:
/jlne.ws/47NAAyu
SpaceX Heralds New Era of Mega IPOs. Buyers Beware
Jonathan Levin – Bloomberg Opinion
/jlne.ws/4veD9Ug
All that glisters: Maga influencers promote gold but investors feel short-changed; Marketing pitches tell retirees the precious metal is a safe harbour amid claims of misrepresentation and exorbitant fees
Ilya Gridneff – Financial Times
/jlne.ws/3PNUfrX
How Fear of Losing Money Keeps You From Getting Rich
Marc Guberti – Money
/jlne.ws/4sSQ6kR
Apple shareholders reject proposal to scrap DEI program
Kate Gibson – CBS News
/jlne.ws/4dp1ro5
Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance
State Climate Laws Targeted Around US as Iran War Spikes Gas Prices; Experts say the laws have little impact on gasoline costs and are the cheapest way to meet rising electricity demand.
Todd Woody – Bloomberg
As countries and consumers embrace renewable energy in the wake of the Iran war, skyrocketing gasoline prices in the US are fueling efforts to weaken state climate laws. Renewable energy mandates to reduce greenhouse gas emissions generally have little impact on US gas prices, according to experts. But the growing pain at the pump has charged debates in California, Massachusetts, Michigan and New York over whether climate action is affordable as households face rising costs for electricity, groceries and housing.
/jlne.ws/3Q2RoeD
Qatar’s LNG Tankers Idle Across Asia as Export Plant Stays Shut
Stephen Stapczynski – Bloomberg
More than four-dozen empty Qatari liquefied natural gas tankers are idling across Asia, as the nation’s export plant remains shut and the Strait of Hormuz largely closed because of the war in the Middle East. The tankers are gathered in several locations, including West India, off the coast of Sri Lanka, the northern entrance to the Strait of Malacca, and the waters east of Singapore, according to an analysis of tracking data from Bloomberg and Kpler. None of the tankers is carrying LNG, the data shows.
/jlne.ws/4t4BCyz
Why this oil shock is different; Governments and central banks are out of policy ammunition to contain the economic fallout
Ruchir Sharma – Financial Times
The outcome of the Iran war remains unclear, but the resulting oil shock has revealed a novel vulnerability in the global economy. Never has the world entered a crisis of any kind with such high deficits and debt levels. This burden will limit the ability of governments to cushion the impact of elevated energy prices. The first post-second world war oil shocks hit in the 1970s and coincided with the dawn of a new era, when governments shifted from running budget deficits occasionally to constantly. But back then, the typical deficit in the US and other major countries was around 2 per cent of GDP. Today, the average deficit has more than doubled; as a result the average government debt level for the G7 countries has risen from 20 per cent of GDP to more than 100 per cent.
/jlne.ws/4c9MofA
Power-starved Cuba deepens reliance on Chinese solar tech
Jude Webber, Rachel Millard and Joe Daniels – Financial Times
Cuba is offsetting power blackouts and shortages worsened by Donald Trump’s near-total oil blockade with the help of soaring imports of solar technology from China. Beijing supplied 1 gigawatt of photovoltaic panels to the communist island last year and has promised more support as Cuba seeks to generate 15 per cent of its power from renewables in 2026, according to its new economic and social plan.
/jlne.ws/4vdMYBQ
Saudis Raise Oil Price to Record Premium as War Riles Markets
Yongchang Chin and Anthony Di Paola – Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium, as a widening conflict in the Middle East and Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz convulse energy markets. State oil producer Saudi Aramco increased flagship Arab Light crude for sales next month to a premium of $19.50 over regional benchmarks for refiners in Asia, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. Still, it was about half the level anticipated in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, with this month particularly hard to gauge given volatile Middle East indexes since the war and a plunge in prices toward the end of the month, traders said.
/jlne.ws/4sgfccs
Small UK firms’ energy bills set to more than double due to Iran war
Jillian Ambrose – The Guardian
Thousands of independent businesses across the UK are braced for their energy bills to more than double owing to the sharp rise in heating oil costs as the war in Iran pushed Europe’s fuel market prices to fresh record highs. About 7% of all small and medium-sized companies warm their properties and provide hot water using heating oil, which in some cases has more than doubled in recent weeks. Companies in rural areas are often not connected to the gas grid, meaning they have an even greater reliance on heating oil, which is a form of kerosene linked to the cost of jet fuel. It is used by about 17% of rural small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), according to the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).
OPEC+ Plans Symbolic Oil Quota Hike Amid War, Delegates Say
Fiona MacDonald, Grant Smith and Salma El Wardany – Bloomberg
OPEC+ warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month. “Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time,” the group’s ministerial monitoring committee said in a statement after meeting on Sunday. Any action that jeopardizes security of supply, whether that’s an attack on infrastructure or disruption of export routes, increases market volatility and weakens OPEC+’s efforts, it said.
/jlne.ws/3O8yYZs
Banks, Brokers & Managed Funds
Nelson Peltz’s bidding war highlights $25bn wave of asset manager consolidation; Quest for scale puts global money manager tie-ups on pace to crush last year’s deal total as costs and competition mount
Harriet Clarfelt and Emma Dunkley – Financial Times
When Nelson Peltz’s Trian made a $7.4bn takeover bid for Janus Henderson late last year, few in the market expected Victory Capital to swoop in and try to hijack the deal. After weeks of wrangling, an improved all-cash $8bn bid from Trian and investors led by venture firm General Catalyst beat the Texas-based investment group’s $8.6bn cash-and-share offer.
/jlne.ws/4vcm1OL
BlackRock Files to Challenge Invesco’s Nasdaq 100 ETF Monopoly
Katie Greifeld – Bloomberg
BlackRock Inc. is setting its sights on a corner of the $13.7 trillion US exchange-traded fund industry long controlled by Invesco Ltd: tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. The iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF would follow the technology-heavy index and trade under the ticker IQQ, according to a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Fees for the fund were not yet listed.
/jlne.ws/3PK7oCn
Debanking Is a Confusing Nightmare. It’s at Risk of Getting Worse
Tom Schoenberg – Bloomberg
John Ghazvinian was helping his parents clear out their life savings and move to Portugal when their checking account at Citigroup Inc. vanished from his screen. As weeks and months passed, the bank kept it out of reach and refused to specify why. Ghazvinian, the former director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Middle East Center, had stumbled into a Kafkaesque corner of the US financial system that has confounded customers, industry leaders and even President Donald Trump. The Oxford-trained academic couldn’t figure out what to do.
/jlne.ws/4sPWbi1
Private Equity
Private equity buyouts slump as AI fears and war dent dealmaking; Groups agreed acquisitions worth $172bn in three months to March, a 36% fall from previous quarter
Alexandra Heal – Financial Times
The value of buyouts by private equity groups fell by more than a third in the first quarter of the year, with dealmakers warning that fears over AI’s impact on software businesses and war in the Middle East risk fuelling a further decline. Private equity groups agreed acquisitions worth $172bn in the three months to March, a 36 per cent fall from the previous quarter, according to Dealogic. The figure was an 8 per cent drop from the same period last year.
/jlne.ws/4sZJ1iE
Don’t Toss Junk Bonds Out With Private-Credit Debt; Fears about corporate debt are rising, but high-yield bonds should prove resilient
Telis Demos – The Wall Street Journal
Plenty of investors these days are jettisoning anything that seems risky from their portfolios. But things that look like junk may not be. High-yield bonds, issued by companies with what are commonly called “junk” credit ratings, have been caught up in the same selloff that has ensnared other corporate credits this year. This has mostly involved loans to highly indebted companies, especially those made by private funds.
/jlne.ws/4shAV3M
Work & Management
AI is about to send millions to ‘professional identity purgatory.’ Here’s what I discovered after my 30 year career crashed to a halt
Geoff Curtis – Fortune
On November 7, 2023, my career ended. Not with a dramatic firing, not with a bitter exit, but with an acquisition that made my role redundant. Nearly three decades in the industry. Nine years in an executive role at a biotech company. And then: nothing. I didn’t just lose a job. I lost the scaffolding I’d built my professional identity on. I told myself it was a blip. I was wrong. What followed was something I’ve come to call “professional identity purgatory”—a seemingly endless holding pattern with no title, no structure, and no clear direction. It’s the space between who you were professionally and who you might become. In Catholic theology, purgatory is the in-between—not heaven, not hell, but a passage of purification before something better. That’s the metaphor I keep returning to because “professional identity purgatory” isn’t failure, it’s transition with no timeline. It’s the disorienting gap between losing an identity you’d spent decades building and not yet knowing what replaces it.
/jlne.ws/4c3aWs9
Striking JBS workers to return to Colorado plant on promise of talks
Reuters
Workers of the world’s largest meat company, JBS, agreed to return to work at a beef plant in Greely, Colorado after it agreed to resume negotiations, bringing a three-week picket to an end, their union said in a statement on Saturday. Beef prices set records this year after the nation’s cattle supply dropped to a 75-year low, leading to record prices for meatpackers such as JBS to buy cattle to slaughter, despite benefiting from the climbing prices.
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Wellness Exchange
Many Americans plan to cut food to afford ACA health insurance, new poll shows
Ali Swenson, Associated Press via PBS News
Lately, Priscilla Brown has had to choose between properly managing her Type 2 diabetes and affording other necessities, like gas in her car. Some days, she takes half or a third of her prescribed insulin dose — just to stretch it out longer. “Sometimes I don’t even take my medicine,” said the 48-year-old truck dispatcher in Orlando, Florida. “It’s so much with insurance, it’s crazy.” About 8 in 10 Americans, like Brown, who re-enrolled in Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage say their health care costs are higher this year, including about half who say their costs are “a lot” higher, according to a new survey from the health care research nonprofit KFF. A main reason for increased costs was the Dec. 31 expiration of enhanced tax credits that had offset premiums for most enrollees.
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Why the U.S. Spends So Much on Healthcare; A big reason is the high prices Americans pay for surgeries and drugs
Anna Wilde Mathews – The Wall Street Journal
Americans spend more on healthcare than anyone else in the world. Just insuring a family here costs nearly $27,000 a year, enough to buy a car. The main cause: Prices are far higher in the U.S. for the same medical products and services, from surgeries to drugs. American patients have also been using more care recently, including costly hospital treatment and expensive new drugs for weight loss. That has pushed up spending as well. Here are some of the factors that make U.S. healthcare the most expensive.
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We may have less control over how long we live than previously thought; A study resets the longevity discussion, after previous research focused on those born between 1870 and 1900, and shows genetics and environment play roughly equal roles.
Carolyn Y. Johnson – The Washington Post
Uri Alon was long puzzled by a textbook statistic: Longevity, the thinking went, was about 20 percent in our genes. “That makes you think what’s the rest of the 80 percent: Is it the lifestyle? Why should we study genes for lifespan if it’s not that important? It kind of bothered me,” said Alon, a physicist turned systems biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel. Alon uses mathematical models to understand complicated biological problems, and he and his colleagues built one to reexamine the factors that define the contours of human lifespan in a Science study published earlier this year. The original studies that were used to estimate how much of lifespan was inherited were studies of Scandinavian twins from the tail end of the 19th century.
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Regions
Major Fertilizer Buyer India Issues Tender as War Hits Supply
Pratik Parija and Hallie Gu – Bloomberg
India, the world’s largest urea importer, is aiming to buy about 2.5 million tons of the key crop nutrient ahead of the monsoon sowing season as the Middle East conflict disrupts domestic production, tightening availability. Indian Potash Ltd., which buys urea for the government, issued a tender on Saturday to import 1.5 million tons of urea through the country’s west coast, and the remaining volumes to come via the east coast, according to a tender document posted on the company’s website. The shipments should leave the load port by June 14.
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IMF urges BOJ to keep raising rates even as Iran war poses new risks
Leika Kihara – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund urged the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates, even as the Middle East war posed “significant new risks” to the country’s economic outlook. The proposal comes amid market expectations the BOJ will raise interest rates as soon as April in the face of mounting inflationary pressure from the conflict-induced spike in oil prices, and higher import costs blamed on the weak yen.
/jlne.ws/4mfHqmg
Singapore Lawmakers to Discuss Impact of Iran War in Parliament
Andrea Tan – Bloomberg
Singapore lawmakers filed more than 60 questions to parliament seeking the government’s response to the war in Iran. Three ministers including the country’s deputy prime minister will make statements on the impact of the Middle East conflict on the trade-reliant nation, according to an order paper for Tuesday’s parliament sitting. Questions revolved around energy prices, Singapore’s economic strategy as a result of the trade disruptions, helping businesses and households cope with price shocks, as well as thresholds for fiscal intervention.
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From digging coal to selling noodles? China’s mining workers face change
Huizhong Wu – AP News
Yang Haiming didn’t stop working when he retired from the coal mines at age 60. Instead, he jumped into a new industry. Yang is part of a generation of workers that powered China’s growth by digging coal from underground mines in Datong, a city known as China’s coal capital in the northern province of Shanxi. Now, as China prioritizes renewable energy over coal, Yang is ahead of the change his fellow workers are being forced to confront.
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Malaysia launches push to encourage local investors to buy stocks
Nikkei Asia
Malaysia is making a fresh bid to expand its capital market, launching a five-year plan to raise the value of its listed companies and encourage more investors to trade actively.
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Britain Is Finally Waking Up to the Dangers of Information Warfare
Matthew Brooker – Bloomberg Opinion
When Iran imposed an internet blackout following Israeli airstrikes last year, hundreds of social media accounts devoted to Scottish independence suddenly went quiet. Profiles such as “proud Scottish lass” Fiona were no longer online to share false details of protesters seizing Balmoral Castle or the UK government’s plans to turn tracts of the Highlands into weapons labs. It’s hard to imagine an experiment more effectively designed to demonstrate the presence of malign foreign interference.
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Spain’s pork industry seeks salvation from swine fever threat
Guy Hedgecoe – BBC
Jordi Saltiveri gazes across his farmland, on which he keeps 8,000 pigs, and remembers the day late last year when the news emerged that African Swine Fever (ASF) had been detected in Spain. “I felt sad, angry, impotent,” he says. “Once it’s known that a country is positive for ASF, other countries will stop importing its pork.” Saltiveri’s farm, owned by his father and grandfather before him, is in an isolated spot in the province of Lleida, in the northeastern region of Catalonia.
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Italy sets jet fuel limits at some airports on supply gap
Danny Lee, Mihir Mishra, Sonia Sirletti, and Bloomberg – Fortune
Several airports in Italy issued advisories of limited fuel supplies for the next few days as the conflict in the Middle East shows few signs of ending.
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Ex-Wall Street Trader Attempts Distressed M&A Turnarounds in Milei’s Argentina
Jonathan Gilbert – Bloomberg
After years trading securities in New York for Oppenheimer & Co. and Morgan Stanley, Esteban Nofal’s hunt for returns has brought him home to Argentina. President Javier Milei’s mission to move the country to a free market is laying a path for contrarian investors like Nofal, as the shifting economy leaves some companies in ruins while spurring an extended period of deal flow in oil and mining. Nofal is currently trying to turn around Celulosa Argentina SA, a century-old pulp and paper maker that filed for bankruptcy protection, blaming its collapse on the business climate under Milei.
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More Americans Are Breaking Into the Upper Middle Class; Research shows that ranks of higher earners have grown markedly over last 50 years, while lower rungs of middle class have shrunk
Rachel Louise Ensign – The Wall Street Journal
Randy Shilling went to public high school in Corpus Christi, Texas. He graduated from Texas A&M University with a petroleum engineering degree. For the first decade of his career, he lived in an apartment and worried about paying for vacations. Then, in his early 30s, he landed a job at a chemical plant that paid about 15% more plus bonuses, and life felt smoother. Around the same time, he bought a house on a golf course in the Houston suburb of Humble, Texas. Promotions and pay raises followed, and he saved more than $3 million for retirement. Almost without realizing it, Shilling ascended into the upper middle class.
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See How the Average U.S. Worker Has Changed Over 250 Years
Max Rust, Andrew Mollica and Amira McKee – The Wall Street Journal
In the nearly 250 years since the nation’s founding, technological leaps and demographic shifts transformed a scattered collection of farmers and laborers into today’s workforce of more than 150 million people. The economic evolution began with a workforce barely large enough to populate a modern-day city. On the eve of the American Revolution, the then-13 colonies generated a gross income of just over $164 million in 1774, about $70 per capita.
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