Christian Domin, GlenStar Properties – Value Investing: Office Space and Associated Risks
“When you’re first starting out, you want to keep your lease as short-term as possible and mitigate the risk. If there is a regulatory change, a change in your small, three-person partnership, or any other change, you’re going to be stuck.”
Most financial professionals know that the day-to-day price risks are but a small component of one’s overall business risk. Even trading firms that make their money on price movement must deal with regulatory uncertainty, technological change and other shifting trends. Christian Domin, whose firm GlenStar Properties purchased the iconic Chicago Board of Trade Building in 2012, says real estate risk is one of the most important yet overlooked business risks in Chicago and other financial centers.
At the MarketsWiki World of Opportunity 2016 Intern Education event in Chicago, Domin offers a host of practical advice for young traders, brokers, budding entrepreneurs and all new entrants to the financial markets. He tells the group of interns that they may desire, and even deserve, that corner office with the lake view, but the smart play is to hold off, look for value, maybe consider an office share or a sublease for a few years, before taking the plunge into a long-term lease.
It’s Called Financial Repression, and Governments Around the World Are Doing It; Countries are adopting policies to encourage or require savings to be lent cheaply to the government
By JAMES MACKINTOSH – WSJ
The money markets are screaming about a global shortage of dollars. Financial stress indicators are flashing yellow. The Bank of Japan on Friday took special measures to help its banks access greenbacks, and interbank borrowing rates for dollars are at the highest level since 2009.
***DA: The postwar financial repression took decades to unwind, but the end result was good for everybody. It looks as if we are headed down the path once again.
Bits & Pieces
By JLN Staff
Our friends at DRW reminded us in a tweet that today is the 10th anniversary of side-by-side trading in agricultural products at the CBOT/CME Group. It seems like such a long-time ago, a lifetime in fact.
John Lothian News has hired Finn Dardis Green as an short-term intern this summer. Finn, the son of Alun Green, is working on updating MarketsWiki and enjoying the pleasures of Chicago in the summer.
August is a month when many people are on vacation. As mentioned yesterday, I will be off on a canoe trip tomorrow for a few days. Jim Kharouf will be taking a couple of weeks off later in the month. And then there is the day I need off to take my daughter to school in Iowa.
Jim is off to New York to help celebrate the 30th anniversary of Intermarket Communications on Wednesday. Congratulations to Martin Mosbacher and his team for 30 terrific years.
As noted below, yesterday’s job posting from the CME Group garnered a lot of attention. We are currently refreshing our MarketsWiki Jobs board, always a popular page. We removed out of date jobs, but need some more to post. We also added direct links to the careers pages of our MarketsWiki sponsors. Please send us your open positions to post. here
Monday’s Top Three
We saw a broad base of topics piquing readers’ interest yesterday. Receiving the most clicks was welcome news – Berkeley study finds scarce evidence of market ‘front-running’. In second place was a sign that we count many job seekers as JLN readers – a posting from CME Group, Director Strategic Intelligence & Analytics. In third place was IEX appoints board members with roots in both baseball and the NYSE. Take me out to the exchange game…
Hong Kong Closes Stock Market as Storm Nida Shuts City
Eduard Gismatullin, Justina Lee, Crystal Tsz Ching Tse – Bloomberg
Observatory lowers storm signal to No. 3 as typhoon moves away; City’s transportation system resumes services in afternoon
Hong Kong’s stock exchange halted trading for the day as tropical storm Nida lashed the city with rain and wind, forcing schools shut and flights grounded.
Deutsche Bank Says U.S. GDP Flop Is a Sign of Secular Stagnation
Sid Verma – Bloomberg
You can now add the rates strategy team at Deutsche Bank AG to the growing list of Wall Street analysts who reckon the U.S. economy is probably ensnared in secular stagnation.
***DA: Some would argue that the policy error occurred several years ago.
Listed Options Get a Brexit Boost in Q2 2016
Callie Bost – TABB Forum
Listed options volume climbed in June to its highest levels in 10 months after a stock market swoon on the heels of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. Volume in Q2 hit 1.01 billion contracts, a 3.2% drop from Q1 2016’s volume, but a 4.6% increase over Q2 2015’s totals.
Tullett Prebon targets broking team boost as ICAP deal nears end; Group grazing market for more specialist talents while making most of energy market volatility
by: Philip Stafford – FT
Tullett Prebon will look to hire more teams of brokers that trade over the phone even as it closes in on its transformative deal to buy the global broking business of rival ICAP.
Draghi’s Liquidity Drowns Out European Companies’ Brexit Woes
Karl Lester M Yap – Bloomberg
July was strongest month for European corporate bonds in years; ECB, BOE forecast to add to monetary easing at next meetings
When the U.K. voted to leave the European Union in June, corporate-bond investors across the region were rattled. Then they started buying like mad.
Treasury 30-Year Yield Seen Near Zero in Nomura’s Vicious Circle
William Finbarr Flynn – Bloomberg
Expects ‘Japanese money’ will flow into other bond markets; BOJ may consider cutting JGB purchases in its review: Nomura
The yield on 30-year Treasuries could plunge to almost zero within two years as investors seeking higher income streams shift funds from Japanese government bonds into the U.S., according to the Asian nation’s biggest brokerage.
This Boring Service Is Suddenly a Big Concern for Treasurys; Bank of New York will soon be the only bank left settling trades
By KATY BURNE – WSJ
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s retreat from a mundane but crucial settlement role in the $13 trillion U.S. Treasury market poses a fresh challenge for regulators seeking to bolster the market’s capacity to withstand shocks.
The Humbling of American Tech Giants in China; Uber’s decision to throw in the towel in China holds lessons for Facebook, Apple and others still craving success in the world’s biggest technology market.
Christina Larson – Bloomberg
Not so long ago, American tech giants viewed China as theirs for the taking: 1.4 billion people, a growing middle class, an affinity for American pop culture from Titanic and Friends to Michael Jackson. And, apparently, a tendency to see U.S. goods and services as attractive or superior.
European bank shares fall in brutal start to August; Italy’s troubled financial sector continues to weigh on investor sentiment despite EU stress tests
by: Thomas Hale and Richard Blackden – FT
European bank shares extended a brutal start to August, as a combination of concern over the corrosive effect of negative interest rates and a protracted crisis in Italy’s banking sector sours sentiment.
Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse Fall From Benchmark Index Underscores Banking Sector’s Decline; The two major banks failed to make the monthly list compiled by STOXX, which is based on market capitalization
By MIKE BIRD – WSJ
Stoxx, which runs a series of European equity indexes, cut the two banking heavyweights from this index after European trading hours on Monday.
Guest post: What a UK macro-financial framework should look like as Brexit is negotiated
Peter Doyle, a former IMF staffer, advises the UK government not to delay rewriting the fiscal and macro-financial rules for the Brexit era…
Former UK Chancellor George Osborne’s fiscal framework has been scrapped, not before time. By default, the rest of the macro-financial framework remains, for now. Given that, the school holidays, and preoccupations with prospects for Article 50, free movement, and UK access to the single market, it is tempting to leave Mr Osborne’s successor, Philip Hammond, as he might prefer, to devise a new macro-financial framework for the autumn undisturbed by public advice.
The One-Size Euro Mightn’t Be So Tight After All; ECB easing means that more countries are closer to an ideal exchange rate
Alessandro Speciale – Bloomberg
It’s a given that the euro can’t have the right exchange rate for all of its 19 diverse members, all of the time. Yet at the helm of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi may be making it a closer fit for more countries, more of the time.
Exchanges, OTC and Clearing
CME Group Reached Average Daily Volume of 14.1 Million Contracts per Day in July 2016, up 10 Percent from July 2015
CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced that July 2016 average daily volume (ADV) reached 14.1 million contracts per day, up 10 percent from July 2015. CME Group July 2016 options volume averaged 3.2 million contracts per day, up 9 percent versus July 2015, with electronic options averaging 1.7 million contracts per day, up 6 percent over the same period last year. Total open interest peaked above 110 million contracts on July 14, and was 103 million contracts at the end of July, up 13 percent from year-end 2015.
SGX: Open for business
Sarfraz Thind – The Trade
Singapore Exchange (SGX) is currently South East Asia’s biggest equities and derivatives exchange and one of the few to offer hard currency exposure to Asian markets via options and futures. This has made it something of a gateway into the continent for foreign investors with about 80% of its users international. With that in mind, it helps that SGX’s head of derivatives has something of an international background. Michael Syn studied at Cambridge then went on to work at UBS in London before eventually moving back to Singapore with DBS Asset Management and then being appointed SGX’s first derivatives head in 2011. It is the exchange’s position as a multi-currency, multi-country hub that has given SGX a sweet spot in the Asian market, according to Syn.
Bats To Launch “BAM” Options Auctions, Offering Competitive Price Improvement Opportunity
Bats Global Markets, Inc. (Bats: BATS) announced today plans to launch the Bats Auction Mechanism (BAM), new functionality that provides price improvement opportunities for orders sent to its EDGX Options Exchange.
Casablanca Stock Exchange goes live with MillenniumIT trading and surveillance technology
London Stock Exchange Group
Flexible and robust MillenniumIT technology implemented to meet needs of local market; Integrated trading and surveillance solution; Part of wider strategic cooperation agreement between LSEG and CSE
MillenniumIT, a leading innovative capital markets technology business, today announces that Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) has successfully gone live with Millennium Exchange for equities and fixed income trading and Millennium Surveillance to monitor trading and detect unusual behaviour.
Private share sales: Trading places
For tech startups, paying employees with shares makes sense. Young companies can reduce their bills and so preserve their capital; workers receive a payout which, although deferred and uncertain, is potentially far more valuable than their salary. But there is a hitch: tech firms are taking much longer to list. Their average age at initial public offering (IPO) has risen from four years during the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000 in America to 11 today. That leaves many workers pining for a payday.
Turnover At Deutsche Börse’s Cash Markets At 100.8 Billion Euros In July
Order book turnover on Xetra, Börse Frankfurt and Tradegate Exchange across all asset classes stood at EUR100.8 billion in July (July 2015: EUR137.3 billion). Of the EUR100.8 billion, EUR91.8 billion were attributable to Xetra (July 2015: EUR127.4 billion). The average daily turnover on Xetra stood at EUR4.4 billion in July (July 2015: EUR5.5 billion). A turnover of EUR3.4 billion was attributable to Börse Frankfurt (July 2015: EUR4.4 billion). Order book turnover on Tradegate Exchange* totalled approximately EUR5.5 billion in July (July 2015: EUR5.5 billion).
Industry Veteran Lisa Pollina Joins DTCC Board Of Directors
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the premier post-trade market infrastructure for the global financial services industry, today announced that Lisa A. Pollina, former Vice Chairman for RBC Capital Markets, a division of the Royal Bank of Canada, has been added to its Board of Directors. Ms. Pollina has joined the Board’s Audit Committee, Finance/Capital Committee & Risk Committee.
Trading statistics July 2016
In July 2016, the international derivatives market Eurex, part of Deutsche Börse Group, recorded an average daily volume of 5.5 million contracts (July 2015: 5.9 million). In total, 114.8 million contracts were traded at Eurex in July.
SEC chairman and former NYSE chief joins IEX board
Hayley McDowell – The Trade
The Investors Exchange (IEX) unveiled its finalised board of directors this week, with industry veteran William Donaldson topping the list of appointments. The former chief executive officer of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and 27th Chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) joined the board alongside a number of other “high-calibre leaders”.
OneChicago Announces Trading Volume For July 2016
OneChicago, LLC (OCX), a securities finance exchange, today announced its July 2016 volume of 853,607, a decrease of 27% year-over-year. OneChicago is a CFTC and SEC regulated exchange offering Single Stock Futures (SSF), a Delta One product, on approximately 1,800 equities, including ADRs and ETFs.
MGEX Reports July Volume Numbers
MGEX, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), has concluded the month of July with a total volume of 148,607 and an electronic volume of 128,905.
EEX New Participant: Société Générale S.A.
Société Générale S.A. has additionally been admitted to exchange trading for UK Financial Power Futures.
July volume for the Japanese commodity markets
Why Warren Buffett is pounding the table for Hillary Clinton
Nicole Sinclair – Yahoo Finance
Warren Buffett will introduce presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at a rally in Omaha, Nebraska on Monday. Buffett, CEO of $360 billion company Berkshire Hathaway, endorsed Clinton in December. Clinton is expected to focus her speech on the economy, while highlighting a Moody’s study arguing that Trump’s economic proposals would cause the US to fall into a recession.
Buffett rebukes Trump, questions his business skill
BY AMANDA BECKER – Reuters
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett on Monday campaigned alongside U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at a rowdy rally in his home state of Nebraska, where he challenged Republican Donald Trump to release his tax returns and questioned Trump’s business acumen.
Trump Calls Clinton the ‘Devil,’ Says Election ‘Rigged’ in Her Favor; The Republican presidential nominee casts doubt on the outcome of the November elections.
Sahil Kapur – Bloomberg
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail grew even darker Monday after a poll showed him trailing Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
Investing and Trading
It Hasn’t Cost This Little to Hedge Equities in a Year
Akane Otani – WSJ
Want to protect yourself against U.S. stocks falling? Now’s a relatively cheap time to do it. The cost of hedging against equities fell to a one-year low last month, Credit Suisse said in a note on Monday. In other words, an investor who wants to buy a put option on the S&P 500 – a bet that would only pay off if the index fell below a certain price by the option’s expiration – is now paying less to do so than he or she was every month since last July. The cost of a put option expiring in three months is hovering around 1.3% of the S&P 500’s spot price, versus around 2.5% in June, when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, and around 3.3% in January, when the market sold off.
BCOM Tables & Charts: July 2016
The BCOM gave up nearly a half of 2016 gains in July led by continuing supply issues in energy and grains. The 10.7% July decline in the Bloomberg Energy Index was the biggest sector drag on BCOM total returns as crude oil futures essentially dropped a handle – from near $50/bbl to near $40/bbl. Despite a stronger US dollar for most of the month and risk-on in most capital markets, precious metals continued to be the best performing sector.
Putting it all on red; The rules encourage public-sector pension plans to take more risk
Imagine two kinds of investment funds, both of which have the same aim: to provide pensions for their employees. You might think that they would invest in a similar way. But when it comes to American pension funds, you would be wrong. It turns out that public funds have a rather different, and more aggressive, approach to risk from private ones (and indeed from their counterparts in other countries).
Ex-Barclays fixed income head builds commodity hedge fund
Elizabeth Blosfield – Risk.net
Aurelia Lamorre-Cargill admits that commodities have not been “the favourite place for investors in the last few years”. Still, she is the co-founder and chief executive of Argon Capital Management, a new hedge fund management firm that will focus on the beleaguered asset class. It aims to raise $300 million in initial funding. “Commodities have been through a very rough patch,” she says. “But I hope in the next year, I’ll be able to say that [launching Argon] wasn’t just a visionary view. I think the need is there.” Lamorre-Cargill and her partner, Marcos Bueno, started Argon last year just as investors were fleeing commodities in droves.
Pimco Joins $163 Billion Club in Emerging-Market Bond Shift
Natasha Doff – Bloomberg
Twelve of biggest global bond funds raise EM bets: Morningstar; Templeton Global Bond fund increases allocation above 50%
Investors managing $163 billion are throwing their weight behind what BlackRock Inc. dubbed the “great migration” to emerging-market debt in search of antidotes to the near-zero yields offered by their staple assets.
Bailouts of Too Big to Fail Banks Don’t Create Moral Hazard
John Carney – WSJ
Bailouts may matter much less than we think. The conventional wisdom about bailouts is that they create moral hazard. When banks believe they are too big to fail and therefore will be bailed out by the government, they take excessive risks. Their gains are pocketed by bankers and their investors, while the costs of their failures are borne by the public. A new paper from Urs Birchler of the University of Zurich faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Information Technology argues that this is only partly true.
Glass-Steagall’s return threatens Wall Street
Jon Marino – CNBC
Breaking up the banks might make campaigning politicians look good, but it won’t help bank investors much. That’s the big takeaway from a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods report issued over the weekend, which looks at the prospects and ramifications of bringing back Glass-Steagall, legislation that put a wall between commercial and investment banking but was done away with in the late 1990s.
Bank capital: MPS secures 11th hour rescue plan
Louise Bowman – Euromoney Magazine
A private sector recapitalization of Italian lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) was announced at the 11th hour last month after the results of EBA stress tests on July 29. To the surprise of no one, the bank performed disastrously in the tests, recording a fully loaded CET1 ratio of minus 2.44% in 2018 under an adverse scenario. The ambitious deal moves nearly EUR10 billion of NPLs off-balance sheet and pours another EUR5 billion of capital into MPS’s coffers. This should increase its CET1 to 11.4% and reduce its NPL ratio from the current eye-watering 34% to around 18%.
India opens doors to banking licences
Simon Mundy – Financial Times
India’s central bank has declared itself permanently open to applications for banking licences, ending its earlier practice of issuing them only during rare windows, as it pushes for greater competition in the sector. Since it began liberalising its banking industry in 1993, India has invited applications to launch private-sector banks only once a decade: there were 10 successful applications that year, two in 2003, and another two during the latest six-month window in 2013.
All eyes on Glenn Stevens’ farewell bundle
Jennifer Hughes – Financial Times
When Glenn Stevens leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia next month after a decade at the helm, investors around the world will lose one of their more experienced guides. Not many central bankers can accuse big investors bluntly of “dropping the bundle” during January’s turmoil, or tell markets to “chill out!”, as he did last year. Whether investors do, in fact, chill out this week will depend very much on what the RBA does to interest rates on Tuesday.
Ocean Tomo Investment Group formed to provide technology rich companies with holistic advisory, investment banking and capital raising services.
Ocean Tomo Investment Group
Ocean Tomo announced today the creation of Ocean Tomo Investment Group, LLC, an independent licensed broker-dealer under federal and state securities law. Ocean Tomo Investment Group provides technology rich companies with holistic corporate advisory, investment banking and capital raising services.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon: US GDP could rise to 4% under next president
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon took a long-term view on the U.S. economy and talked up the bank’s competitive position in a wide-ranging interview with CNBC on Monday. He suggested that his bank makes the world a better place.
Brexit could add to European banking costs: JPMorgan’s Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on Monday that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union could lead to duplicate costs to provide banking services to European customers.
The Great Digital-Currency Debate: ‘New’ Ethereum Vs. Ethereum ‘Classic’
Paul Vigna – WSJ
The new digital currency Ethereum is only about three years old, but after a controversial software upgrade, it already has split in two. After the so-called “forking” of the cryptocurrency was carried out July 20 to undo a hack in June that led to the theft of $60 million worth of Ethereum, some developers of the currency fought back by essentially ignoring the fork, not updating their software and maintaining the older version of the currency,
Fidessa to gain from tighter regulation of financial firms
Fidessa Group Plc (FDSA.L) said on Monday it expected revenue to rise 4 percent this year on a constant currency basis as changing U.S. and European regulations boost demand for its trading software.
Supreme Court Could Redefine Insider Trading Law
Peter J Henning – NY Times
There are longstanding differences between Boston and New York, like the rivalry between the Red Sox and the Yankees. Adding a new one, the federal appeals courts in each city have taken different approaches to the type of benefit a tipper must receive in exchange for inside information to make trading on it a violation of the securities laws. The Supreme Court will decide what type of benefit must be provided to prove a quid pro quo arrangement, and it could take insider trading law in a new direction.
FCA Sees Later Deadline of 2019 for PPI Claims Against Banks
Richard Partington, Donal Griffin – Bloomberg
U.K. bank regulator wants ‘orderly conclusion’ to PPI scandal; Deadline could be later than expected, cause more losses
The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority may impose a deadline on payment protection insurance complaints a year later than expected, raising the prospect of extra charges for lenders in a banking scandal that’s already cost them about $41.8 billion.
The scam that changed India’s primary market
Business Standard News
Sebi had found irregularities in 21 IPOs between 2003 and 2005. Eleven years on, while 80% of scam-hit investors have been fully compensated, more than 50% of the sum is yet to be distributed. Last month, the Supreme Court passed a judgment quashing a tribunal order against the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in the matter of Opee Stock Link, an Ahmedabad-based operator. Over the next few weeks, the regulator would take steps to recover the disgorged illegal gains of about Rs 14 lakh from Opee and its director, Ashok Bagreecha. The order was a small step forward for the capital market regulator in its endeavour to compensate retail investors hit by what has come to be known as the ‘IPO scam’ or the ‘demat scam’.
FINRA Files Complaint Charging Broker With Fraudulently And Excessively Trading Accounts Of Elderly, Blind Widow
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) announced today that it has filed a complaint against broker Hank Mark Werner of Northport, New York, charging him with securities fraud for churning the account of his customer, a 77-year old blind widow, and for excessive and unsuitable trading concerning her account. The complaint alleges that Werner engaged in a deceptive and fraudulent scheme by churning the widow’s accounts over a three-year period to maximize his compensation by charging more than $243,000 in commissions, while causing the customer approximately $184,000 in net losses.
Federal Court Orders California Resident Ghassan Tawachi and His Firm, Intelligent Trades, LLC, to Pay in Total Nearly $1.5 Million in Disgorgement and a Monetary Penalty for Defrauding Clients through a Bogus Commodity Futures Trading System
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) obtained a federal court Consent Order for Permanent Injunction against Defendants Ghassan Tawachi of Irvine, California, and his firm, Intelligent Trades, LLC, a Florida limited liability company, requiring them to jointly and severally disgorge $479,755 of ill-gotten gains and pay a $1 million civil monetary penalty for defrauding clients through the operation of a commodity futures software trading system. In addition, the Order finds that Tawachi acted as a Commodity Trading Advisor without being registered with the CFTC as required by the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).
Sebi directs exchanges to provide registration documents in regional languages
Business Standard News
In a bid to help retail investors understand the securities market better, capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has decided to provide client registration documents in 15 vernacular languages.
Japan’s economy: Three-piece dream suit
Japan is not, by nature, a boastful country. Its opportunities for bombast have shrunk along with its population. And its economic pride has suffered many years of deflation, a form of macroeconomic self-deprecation, in which firms and workers continuously discount what they do. In some fields, however, Japan still allows itself some swagger. It is, for example, happy to describe itself as a “robotics superpower”. In a speech early this year Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, praised a “dream robot suit” made by Cyberdyne as a prime example of the country’s technological advances. The robotic exoskeleton can add strength and stamina to healthy limbs and restore movement to enfeebled ones. As a symbol of Japanese ingenuity in overcoming debility, the suit’s appeal to Mr Abe is easy to understand.
Turkey, Russia pursue gas pipe dream as EU frets
Declarations by Russia and Turkey last week reviving plans for the TurkStream natural gas pipeline linking the two have worried EU diplomats who see it strengthening Moscow’s hand – but analysts say the project is more rhetoric than reality.
China Clamps Down on Fund-Management Firms; China’s industry body for private fund management has canceled the licenses of more than 10,000 firms in the past six months
By SHEN HONG – WSJ
China has undertaken a major overhaul of its loosely-regulated fund-management industry, revoking the licenses of over 10,000 firms in the last six months, as Beijing escalates a campaign to clean up its speculative and irregularities-ridden financial sector.
HC allows FTIL to disburse salary and other expenses; In a separate case, Jignesh Shah’s judicial custody extended till August 12
Dilip Kumar Jha – Business Standard
In a major respite for employees of Financial Technologies (India) (FTIL), the Bombay High Court on Monday ordered the release of money needed for salary and other statutory expenses from FTIL’s bank accounts that had been attached by the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of Mumbai Police.