The Stock Market’s Fear Gauge Just Signaled Bull Market Is Still Alive

Sep 18, 2023

Observations & Insight

John Shay Shoulders AFX Role With Optimism and Purpose

John Shay, the CEO of the American Financial Exchange, took on the role after 7RIDGE bought the exchange from AFX Founder and former CEO Dr. Richard Sandor and the other AFX investors. He was interviewed over Zoom by John Lothian News about AFX and his views on the role of Ameribor.

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Lead Stories

The Stock Market’s Fear Gauge Just Signaled Bull Market Is Still Alive
Matthew Fox – Markets Insider
The bull market in stocks is alive and well based on the stock market’s fear gauge, according to a Monday note from DataTrek Research.
DataTrek highlighted that the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, closed at a post-pandemic low of 12.8 on Thursday, representing its second sub-13 close for all of 2023.
The sharp decline in the VIX has occurred even as there are plenty of risks investors are worried about.

Crypto Whale Trades $150M in Ether (ETH) Call Options, Data Tracker Greeks.Live Shows
Omkar Godbole – CoinDesk
The ether (ETH) market has come alive with a whale, or investor with ample capital supply, trading large amounts of call options.
In the past 24 hours, a whale has traded nearly 92,600 ETH call option contracts worth $150 million on the crypto exchange Deribit, according to options data tracking website Greeks.Live. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 ETH.
“The whale actively bought $150 million worth of notional ETH calls, and all of them were naked buys, with clear long-term bullish expectations,” Greeks.Live tweeted on X.

Hedge fund bets could spark turmoil in US Treasuries, BIS warns; Short positions in 2-year Treasury futures reached record highs in August
Kate Duguid – Financial Times
A build-up of leveraged bets has the potential to “dislocate” trading in the $25tn US Treasuries market, the umbrella group for central banks said, the latest high-profile warning over the potential for crowded hedge fund bets to sow instability. The Bank for International Settlements issued a warning in its quarterly report released on Monday about the growth of the so-called basis trade – whereby hedge funds seek to exploit the tiny differences between the prices of Treasury bonds and their equivalents in the futures market.

Hedge funds sell energy stocks, increase bearish bets – Goldman
Carolina Mandl and Nell Mackenzie – Reuters
Hedge funds ditched energy stocks last week for the first time in three weeks, despite a rally in oil prices triggered by the prospect of a widening supply deficit, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said in a report.
The move, according to the bank’s prime brokerage unit, was mainly led by short sales, meaning that hedge funds were speculating on a decline in energy stocks’ prices. The bank said sales occurred in both North America and Europe.

4 things to watch for at this week’s Fed policy meeting
Greg Robb – MarketWatch
The Federal Reserve is not expected to change the stance of its interest-rate policy or say anything definitive about its near-term outlook at this week’s policy meeting. But Fed watchers know where to look for subtle hints about the Fed’s thinking regarding the outlook for the economy and interest rates.
Most of the focus will be on the Fed’s economic forecast, known as the Summary of Economic Projections.


Market for Underlying Security Used for Openings on MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl Options and MIAX Emerald Options for Newly Listed Symbol ARM Effective Monday, September 18, 2023.
Miami International Holdings, Inc
The following symbol will start trading on MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl Options and MIAX Emerald Options beginning Monday, September 18, 2023. As set forth in MIAX Options Rule 503(d), MIAX Pearl Rule 503(a)(3) and MIAX Emerald Rule 503(d), the exchanges shall use NASDAQ as the “market for the underlying security” for the purpose of Openings on the Exchange.

New Listing Effective For September 18, 2023 – Arm Holdings plc (ARM)
Miami International Holdings, Inc.
Arm Holdings plc American Depository Shares (ARM) will start trading on MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl Options and MIAX Emerald Options beginning Monday, September 18, 2023 and shall use NASDAQ as the “market for the underlying security” for the purpose of Openings on the Exchange.

Cboe Digital Settlement Service Successfully Clears First Trade Between Nonco and DV Chain
Cboe Digital is pleased to announce it has successfully cleared its first trade from Nonco U.S., a subsidiary of one of the largest over-the-counter (OTC) providers in Latin America, and DV Chain, an affiliate of Chicago-based proprietary trading group DV Trading and provider of world-class cryptocurrency trading and technology, on its new Cboe Digital Settlement Service.

CME Group to Launch Cobalt Hydroxide Futures on October 23
CME Group
CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, today announced that it will launch Cobalt Hydroxide futures on October 23, pending all relevant regulatory reviews. This is the fourth battery metals futures contract CME Group has launched in response to evolving hedging needs within the rapidly growing electric vehicle space.


Bitcoin Prices Are Surging. How This Week Could Bring a Big Move.
Jack Denton – Barron’s
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies advanced on Monday as traders aimed to push digital assets out of a range where they’ve been parked for the past month.
And the days ahead hold a key macroeconomic catalyst that could shift the needle as well.

Volatility Strikes Amidst Rising Oil Prices and Interest Rates
JJ Kinahan – tastylive
The stock market seemed to be on cruise control heading into last Friday, with little to suggest any impending storms on the horizon.
It appeared we might even have a leisurely “triple witching” day—a term referring to the expiration of listed options, futures, and options on futures. However, as seasoned investors know all too well, markets have a knack for catching us off guard just when things seem tranquil. Last Friday, the S&P 500 took a 1.2% tumble, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.5%.

Eventful Week Ahead
Cboe (Video)
In #Vol411, Joel Hawthorne @louiswinthrop reminds us of the $VIX expiration for September on Wednesday, 9/20, lets us know economic data that’s coming this week – like the #FOMC rate decision and crude oil inventories on 9/20, the Philadelphia Fed Index, existing home sales data and initial jobless claims on 9/21 and more.


Trillion-Dollar Industry Powering Chicago Is at Risk of Leaving; Slew of taxes threatens future of Chicago as a finance hub; Trading firms, exchanges want new mayor to curb surging crime
Isis Almeida – Bloomberg
The letters are stamped all over the hallways of Chicago’s giant skyscrapers and grand office buildings. DRW, IMC, CME, Cboe. These are some of the derivatives firms that collectively handle trillions of dollars a year in trades, greasing the wheels of global markets with everything from stock options to corn futures. Most of them have called Chicago home for decades – providing thousands of jobs within the city’s $75 billion finance industry.

The Mystery Behind Tom Wolfe’s ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’ Protagonist
Joseph Mysak Jr – Bloomberg
Stacked in the vaults of the New York Public Library’s grand main building at 42nd Street in Manhattan are 236 boxes detailing the personal and professional life of one of the 20th century’s most celebrated chroniclers of American society. It’s fitting that Tom Wolfe’s archive is housed in the heart of New York City; with The Bonfire of the Vanities, he wrote the definitive book on the 1980s, the decade when Wall Street’s masters of the universe—a Wolfe coinage—rose to dominate the economy and pop culture.
Wolfe brought a magnifying glass to his subjects, but he avoided being the subject of biographies or documentaries—until now. Filmmaker Richard Dewey’s Radical Wolfe, which premiered on Sept. 15 at IFC Center in New York, offers a glimpse into Wolfe’s depths. He spent many hours in the archive, as did The Big Short author Michael Lewis, whose 2015 Vanity Fair story was the inspiration for the film. In his article, Lewis describes how he dove into some of the boxes of papers that Wolfe, who died in 2018 at age 88, had sold to the library. These contained everything from to-do lists and readers’ letters to sample swatches of leather from London shoemakers.

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