What Else Could Go Wrong for World Economy Before 2020 Is Done

Sep 8, 2020

First Read

Hits & Takes
John Lothian & JLN Staff

A couple of weeks back I shared with you a negative review that we received on our new effort to acquire feedback and testimonials. I received a personal note yesterday that I wanted to share, as it warmed my soul.

“I just wanted to reach out and thank you for filling your newsletter not only with useful and interesting information, but with inspiration and encouragement. I respect how you are not afraid to step out publicly and espouse basic decent virtues like respect, patience, and persistence. I suspect that this may be even more difficult given your own long-running and painful health issues. Few people are willing to speak of their faith as publicly as you are, but you always stop short of sounding “preachy.” You told us (the readers) that you and Robbie have been helping your church with their web outreach, and I just went to the site you sent and watched you read from Matthew.

I have nothing specific to say except this – you are doing the right thing, the right way, and for the right reasons. Your words and sentiments are both noticed and appreciated.”

I have always said our readers are our best salespeople. And this reader is salesperson of the month.

Today we have a video for our MarketsWiki Education World of Opportunity series that is not from our July 22 event. We are continuing to shoot and share presentations from industry leaders and executives with interesting stories to tell. Today, we have one from Joe Schifano about spoofing. Schifano goes into detail to define spoofing and show examples. It is a bit longer than the normal talk, 25 minutes, but if you are interested in learning about spoofing or concerned about it within your organization, it’s good to watch and learn.

Maggle Sklar of the Chicago Fed is kicking off the first Chicago Fed podcast series with a “fireside chat” with former CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo. She covers his tenure and markets one year out from the CFTC, CCPs, LIBOR and reference rates, and of course, virtual currencies and the Digital Dollar. Sklar worked for Giancarlo at the CFTC before joining the Chicago Federal Reserve.

Cboe’s Henry Schwartz, in partnership with The Options Industry Council, will present The State of the Options Industry on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. Schwartz will share his analysis of an unprecedented year for the markets and insights on what the future holds. Register HERE.

The CFTC is looking for a trial attorney for their Chicago office.

Many firms are having employees work from home. Some employees are asking if they can work from other cities. This corporate decentralization raises the question, where should the corporate entity be headquartered and legally incorporated? For example, if the CME Group is going to have people work from home, including their homes in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and others besides Illinois, then where should the enterprise be headquartered or incorporated?

The Federation of European Securities Exchanges (FESE) is looking to recruit a Policy Adviser to work in the regulatory policy team of the organisation. The position is based in Brussels and is a challenging opportunity for the right person.

Here we go again. This time it is EEX who has enabled negative prices on its natural gas spot markets. The European Energy Exchange (EEX) intends to enable negative prices on its natural gas spot markets as of October 1, 2020, following a number of key price fluctuations which have taken place in the market over the recent months.

Eleanor Jacobs died at the age of 91. Who was she? She was the force behind the Earth Shoe phenomenon. She and her husband found these quirky shoes on a trip to Copenhagen and signed a deal for the U.S. distribution rights. On Earth Day, when people were flocking to a parade, she made the decision to name them “Earth Shoes.” The hippies who initially bought them were supplanted by the masses, as the shoes went on to become a global phenomena. I had a pair of earth shoes during a time when I was growing 9 inches in 18 months. Needless to say, I had difficulty walking from the growth, and the shoes did not help. But I was stylish for the times.

The great Lou Brock, a Hall of Fame baseball player, one-time Chicago Cub and long-time St. Louis Cardinal, has passed away at the age of 81. In my youth, the trade of Lou Brock from the Cubs was often lamented for its stupidity.

Have a great day and stay safe and treat people the same way you want to be treated: with respect, equality and justice.~JJL


Chef Nomi, the founder of DeFi project SushiSwap has handed the project over to Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX. It’s interesting that this happened on September 6th; the day before this story broke, Chef Nomi publicly denied that they were leaving the project after converting a portion of SUSHI tokens allocated for developing the protocol into 37,400 ETH (worth about $13 million). When accused of “exit scamming” (cashing out and running off with investors’ money), Nomi said, “I did not. I am still here. I will continue to participate in the discussion. I will help with the technical part. I will help ensure we have a successful migration.” Apparently he changed his mind.~MR


Joseph Schifano – MarketsWiki Education World of Opportunity Post Event Talks

Joe Schifano recently joined Eventus Systems as Global Head of Regulatory Affairs. John Lothian News asked Schifano to offer a presentation on spoofing for our MarketsWiki Education World of Opportunity series.

Presentations like this one are in addition to the ones presented at our July 22 World of Opportunity virtual event. John Lothian News will continue to offer additional non-event World of Opportunity presentations on subjects interesting to interns and newer employees, but also to the industry at large..

Watch the video »


Here’s the evidence—in case you needed it—that downtown’s been seriously damaged; Recent events have shaped the perception, fairly or unfairly, that downtown is no longer a safe place to live or work, and it’s time for everyone—public officials, civic leaders and business execs—to come to terms with that fact.
Crain’s Editorial Board
Anecdotes are one thing. Data is better. We’ve heard the tales all summer—that Chicago’s downtown area has been damaged both literally and figuratively by the recent unrest as well as COVID. Now, thanks to reporting that’s exclusive to Crain’s, we have figures to back up what until now has mostly felt like unsubstantiated dread.

***** The data is not so good.~JJL


New figures show downtown is being drained of apartment dwellers; Suburban landlords, meanwhile, are faring surprisingly well.
Alby Gallun – Crain’s Chicago Business
Amli River North, 71 W. Hubbard St. After moving to downtown Chicago about two years ago, Mike Miller took advantage of all the city had to offer: world-class restaurants, theater, a great lakefront and a pleasant walk to his job in a Wacker Drive office tower.

***** Here is the data.~JJL


Pope Francis Says Gossip Is a ‘Plague Worse Than Covid’
The Associated Press
Pope Francis said Sunday that gossiping is a “plague worse than COVID” that is seeking to divide the Catholic Church. Francis strayed from his prepared text to double down on his frequent complaint about gossiping within church communities and even within the Vatican bureaucracy. Francis didn’t give specifics during his weekly blessing, but went on at some length to say the devil is the “biggest gossiper” who is seeking to divide the church with his lies.

*****The devil told me to say this….~JJL


Dead chicks, delayed prescriptions: Late mail leaves rural America disconnected; “For people out here, the Postal Service is absolutely a lifeline,” a West Virginia farmer said.
Phil McCausland – NBC News
When Jacob Gray opened the box of chicks he ordered, he saw that about 300 of them had been mashed to a pulp. The 100 or so birds that survived tread on their dead fellows and nibbled on what remained of them.

*****As predicted. I am going to hand deliver my mail-in ballot.~JJL


Journalists Aren’t the Enemy of the People. But We’re Not Your Friends; President Trump will try to put the media on the ballot, and reporters face the increasing temptation to posture for those most eager to oust him.
Ben Smith – NY Times
The worst thing about being a reporter in the age of Donald Trump is, of course, the president’s concerted attacks on the free press. The second-worst thing is well-meaning readers who say things like, “Thank you for what you do.”

*****If you want a friend, get a dog.~JJL


China Freezes Credentials for Journalists at U.S. Outlets, Hinting at Expulsions; CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and Getty Images are affected. Chinese officials told journalists, who can still work, that their fate depends on what the United States does to Chinese media employees.
Edward Wong – NY Times
The Chinese government has stopped renewing press credentials for foreign journalists working for American news organizations in China and has implied it will proceed with expulsions if the Trump administration takes further action against Chinese media employees in the United States, according to six journalists and U.S. officials with knowledge of the events and statements on Monday by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman. The actions and threats raise the stakes in the continuing cycles of retribution between Washington and Beijing over news media organizations. Those rounds of retaliation are a prominent element of a much broader downward spiral in U.S.-China relations, one that involves mutually hostile policies and actions over trade, technology, education, diplomatic missions, Taiwan and military presence in Asia.

***** Journalists are the enemy of states that infringe on the freedoms all people are born with and should enjoy.~JJL


Friday’s Top Three
Our top story Friday was Balancing Challenges & Opportunities: Reflecting on Leading Through Crisis with WBC, a LinkedIn post by CME Group Chief Operating Officer Julie Holzrichter, highlighting a roundtable discussion of the Women Business Collaborative (WBC) on leading through a crisis. Second was Report: Trump disparaged US war dead as ‘losers,’ ‘suckers’ from the AP via Yahoo about the story first reported in The Atlantic. Third was Bloomberg Businessweek’s America in Crisis: A Closer Look at a Deeply Polarized Nation.


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Lead Stories

What Else Could Go Wrong for World Economy Before 2020 Is Done
Enda Curran and Fergal O’Brien – Bloomberg
Job gains risk losing speed and fiscal support is drying up; Even when a vaccine is found it will take time to distribute
Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world threatened by trade wars. Sign up here. The world economy’s rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year. The concerns are multiple. The coming northern winter may trigger another wave of the virus as the wait for a vaccine continues. Government support for furloughed workers and bank moratoriums on loan repayments are set to expire. Strains between the U.S. and China could get worse in the run-up to November’s presidential election, and undermine business confidence.

Minneapolis Grain Exchange Membership Approves Demutualization for Purposes of Merger with Miami International Holdings
Press Release via New York City Biz List
Miami International Holdings (MIH), the parent holding company of the MIAX Exchange Group, and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX), a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), today announced that MGEX membership overwhelmingly voted in favor of demutualizing. As a result, MIH and MGEX can now proceed with merger preparations in accordance with the agreement and plan of merger previously announced by the parties.

How China’s Top Broker Tamed the ‘Insane Asylum’ of Hong Kong Finance; Under Citic Securities, the once-freewheeling CLSA is becoming more like the state-owned enterprises that dominate China’s economy
Quentin Webb and Stella Yifan Xie – WSJ
China’s top investment bank is remaking an iconic Hong Kong brokerage in its own image, in a microcosm of how the Asian financial hub is changing. Back in 2013, Citic Securities Co. 6030 -4.00% completed a $1.2 billion takeover of CLSA Ltd., an institution known for its forthright research and glitzy investor events featuring keynote speakers such as Alan Greenspan and Bill Clinton. For years the buyer, also known as Citics, preserved CLSA’s decades-old franchise, before changing its approach.

U.S.-China Chip-War Collateral Damage Will Range Far and Wide; New Trump administration rules look likely to choke off equipment sales to China’s leading chip maker—and hit chip-making equipment makers where it hurts
Jacky Wong – WSJ
The Trump administration is poised to deal another blow to China’s chipmaking ambitions. U.S. chip-making equipment firms may be among the collateral damage. U.S. agencies are discussing whether to add Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. SMICY -0.72% into the Commerce Department’s “entity list,” which would restrict the supply of U.S. technology to the Chinese chip maker. A ban on U.S. technology, similar to the fate suffered by Chinese telecom giant Huawei, would derail SMIC’s expansion plan since the U.S. maintains a stranglehold in some essential parts of the semiconductor equipment market.

African Nations Say They’re Being Ripped Off by Wall Street
Alonso Soto – Bloomberg
Macky Sall had a bone to pick with creditors. Sitting before the head of the International Monetary Fund, investors and diplomats during a conference on African debt in December, the Senegalese president complained that Western prejudice keeps borrowing costs unfairly high on his continent. “This negative-risk perception is not in tune with the reality of our continent,” Sall told the gathering that included the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva. “People think that this is a problematic continent and demand a rate of return that is unparalleled elsewhere in the world.”

China Launches Initiative to Set Global Data-Security Rules; Move, unveiled Tuesday is meant to counter U.S. Clean Network effort
Chun Han Wong – WSJ
China is launching its own initiative to set global standards on data security, countering U.S. efforts to persuade like-minded countries to ringfence their networks from Chinese technology. Announcing the initiative on Tuesday at a Beijing seminar on global digital governance, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi cited growing risks to data security and what he characterized as efforts to politicize security issues and smear rival countries on technology matters—in an apparent swipe at Washington.

How the ‘Nasdaq Whale’ made a splash – and may not have finished feeding yet; Masayoshi Son’s Softbank has banked billions in profits from a series of share trades – but some are uneasy at the strategy.
Ian King -Sky News
The astonishing rally in tech stocks during August seemed, at times, unstoppable. It also seemed, to many seasoned stock market operators, irrational. Aside from a new-found enthusiasm among thousands of Americans for trading in stocks and shares on commission-free apps such as Robinhood, helping drive and add to momentum, there seemed little reason why, for example, shares of Tesla rose by 74% during the month, shares of Apple by 21% and Alphabet, the owner of Google, by 10%.

SoftBank Shares Drop on Concerns About Massive Options Bet; Investors worry that a large bet on tech stocks changes the risk profile of the Japanese tech conglomerate
Phred Dvorak – WSJ
Shares in SoftBank Group Corp. 9984 -0.61% tumbled 7% on Monday, as investors reacted to news of a massive bet the company has placed on a rise in tech stocks. The size of the bet—which used stock options tied to as much as $50 billion in individual tech stocks, as reported by The Wall Street Journal—means SoftBank could win big if the market goes its way, or lose a sizable down payment for the options if tech share prices drop, as they did at the end of last week.

Virus Fatigue Is Risk as U.S. Heads Into Fall, Ex-FDA Head Says
Tony Czuczka and Yueqi Yang – Bloomberg
‘People are exhausted’ with pandemic measures, Gottlieb warns; Likelihood of vaccine for broad use in 2020 ‘extremely low’
“Pandemic fatigue” is an additional risk as the U.S. heads into the fall and winter, when infectious diseases traditionally spread more readily, former Food and Drug Administration head Scott Gottlieb said. A coronavirus vaccine is unlikely to be available for widespread use this year, and more than 20% of the U.S. population could be infected with Covid-19 by year-end based on current spread rates, Gottlieb said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

The Stock Market Is a Strong Election Day Predictor; Since 1928, the incumbent party has won nearly 90% of presidential elections during an S&P 500 upswing
Paul Vigna – WSJ
The stock market’s performance won’t definitively determine who wins the White House, especially in a year as unpredictable as 2020. History, however, shows the incumbent has a clear advantage when the market rallies in the months preceding Election Day. Going back to 1928, incumbent presidents, or candidates from the controlling party, have won nearly 90% of elections when the S&P 500 is positive in the previous three months, according to brokerage firm BTIG.

Europe Just Declared Independence From China; As the EU navigates an increasingly Sino-American world, it finally sees the need to stand together, even against Beijing.
Andreas Kluth – Bloomberg
China’s diplomats were already having a terrible year in Europe, but this week they managed to make it even worse. At this rate, Chinese President Xi Jinping may achieve the dubious feat of alienating the Europeans faster and further than even U.S. President Donald Trump is doing.

IHS Markit and Tokyo Stock Exchange to offer exclusive short selling dataset; The partnership between IHS Markit and the Tokyo Stock Exchange will offer participants access to a short selling and stock loan dataset.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
Data and analytics provider IHS Markit and Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) have partnered to offer participants mutually exclusive access to a short-selling and stock loan dataset. The new dataset will provide clients with five years of historical data across 3,700 Japanese yen-denominated (JPY) equities, including daily breakdowns of trading volume and trading value data for all TSE-listed stocks.

Integral Goes Live with New UX for FX Platform; The vendor’s seventh generation of its single-dealer platform is built on HTML5 to allow for more customization.
Joanna Wright – Waters Technology
Integral has launched the latest version of its web-based trading platform, FX Inside (FXI), which includes an improved user experience (UX).

Bankers Hit the Limits on Working From Home; After the pandemic, many finance workers in New York, London and elsewhere will probably just get a bit more flexibility in how they work.
Elisa Martinuzzi – Bloomberg
As the financial behemoths of Wall Street and the City of London reassess how they’ll operate in the post-pandemic world (assuming we get there), change is certain. Even with Covid-19 in check, staff working away from an office building will no longer be an exception. Banks will be thinking about saving on their huge urban real-estate costs, and employees about a better work-life balance.

Rising Education Levels Provide Diminishing Economic Boost; Share of workers with college degrees has kept growing, but productivity gains have been tepid
Josh Mitchell – WSJ
The U.S. lacks a key ingredient that helped propel it to economic dominance in the 20th century: productivity gains from higher education. Figuring out why could help influence the economy’s long-term trajectory once it emerges from the coronavirus crisis
In 2009, President Obama, worried about the economy’s global standing, set a goal for the U.S. to have the world’s most-educated workforce by 2020.

Treasury and Delaware Sign Pact to Boost Sanctions Enforcement; Agreement intended in part to more quickly investigate potential violations by companies whose beneficial owners may be concealed
Jack Hagel – WSJ
A new agreement between the U.S. Treasury Department and officials in Delaware could lead to more aggressive enforcement of economic sanctions on nonfinancial companies, particularly those that may seek to hide transactions behind anonymous entities. The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which enforces U.S. sanctions, and the Delaware Department of Justice signed a memorandum of understanding Wednesday to encourage information-sharing and coordination on investigations and to promote compliance with U.S. trade and economic sanctions laws.

New York and San Francisco Can’t Assume They’ll Bounce Back; America’s big cities were beginning to struggle even before the pandemic led some residents to flee.
Noah Smith – Bloomberg
Big cities are taking a big hit from the coronavirus pandemic. Statistics from employment search giant Indeed show that major U.S. metropolitan areas have lost a larger percentage of jobs, and have experienced greater rises in unemployment, than smaller metros. Especially hard-hit have been so-called superstar cities such as San Francisco, New York and Seattle:

PayPal’s CEO on why moral leadership makes clear capitalism needs an upgrade
McKenna Moore – Fortune
Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today. Dan Schulman, president and CEO of PayPal, has been thinking about moral leadership and the need to impact his communities positively for a long time. In fact, on the latest episode of “Leadership Next,” host Alan Murray says that Schulman was one of the first to speak on the issue, decades before the Business Roundtable issued its updated statement committing to shareholder capitalism.

The Next Pandemic Is Already Here; Healthy and nutritious food is getting out of reach for millions, and in countries like the U.K. obesity is on the rise.
Agnieszka de Sousa – Bloomberg
Every day for Lynn feels like a struggle to get enough to eat. She’s also in a battle to stop putting on weight. When Britain went into lockdown, market stalls closed and shoppers were told to limit outings for essentials at stretched supermarkets. Lynn, a 38-year-old mother of four who relies on state support, could no longer scour her neighborhood in east London for the best bargains on apples or milk. With her options limited, she’s put on almost 30 pounds (14 kilograms) since March.

Dear Wall Street, Your Boss Wants You to Come Back to the Office
Michelle F Davis and Sridhar Natarajan – Bloomberg
As Labor Day passes, employees are anxious to hear what’s next; JPMorgan executives debate compelling staff back to Manhattan
Up and down the new virtual Wall Street, the question has started to creep in: When will the bosses order us back to our real offices? Almost six months after the coronavirus pandemic emptied towers and trading floors in New York and beyond, JPMorgan Chase & Co. executives have discussed compelling people to come back into the city and other places where Covid-19 has subsided, according to people familiar with the matter.

Drugmakers Pledge to Avoid Safety Shortcuts on Covid Vaccine
Naomi Kresge – Bloomberg
Companies will wait for key data to seek marketing approval; Merck, Pfizer, Glaxo say patient safety is “top priority”
Drugmakers racing to produce Covid-19 vaccines pledged to avoid shortcuts on science as they face pressure to rush a shot to market.

Labs Struggled With Surge in Covid-Testing Demand; How One Made It Through; BioReference Labs shut down temporarily in July in a controversial move that helped it win new business and prepare for the coming flu season
Scott Patterson and John Simons – WSJ
In early July, as coronavirus surged across the U.S., one of the nation’s biggest laboratories involved in testing for Covid-19 made a wrenching decision: It would stop accepting new tests for the disease.

Investors Still Believe They Can Beat the Stock Market; I recently wrote about the benefits of stock diversification. Some readers still aren’t buying it. Here’s what they said—and my responses.
Meir Statman – WSJ
Last month I offered readers a paean to the virtues of diversified investing—the idea of spreading your money across different kinds of investments so as to reduce a portfolio’s risk without reducing expected returns. I presented five myths that skeptics often cite, and debunked those myths in an effort to strengthen the case for a diversified portfolio.

‘We Can’t Just Limp Along’: Americans Reinvent Fall; Coronavirus turns a season of revival into a season of deeper adaptation
Arian Campo-Flores – WSJ
Sonia Dillane, a software development engineer at Amazon.com Inc., won’t be remote working at the kitchen table in her Seattle townhouse anymore, sitting in a dining chair that irritated her back.


Raging campus outbreaks send students home across the U.S.; “They expected college students to stay to themselves or in very small groups of friends. That’s not how the college experience works.”
The State University at Oneonta in central New York on Thursday said it’s sending students home amid rising Covid-19 rates. The same day, Temple University in Philadelphia called it quits. So did Colorado College earlier in the week.

The Stock Market Barely Faltered in the 1918-20 Pandemic. Is History Repeating Itself? When Covid-19 hit, a lot of bullish investors looked for lessons in the previous outbreak. But the comparisons may be misleading.
Mark Hulbert – WSJ
In February and March, when the Covid-19 pandemic was just gathering steam, investors began scouring the historical record for precedents: How do you forecast the market in such a global crisis? Many zeroed in on the 1918-20 Spanish flu pandemic. On the surface, it bore many similarities to the Covid-19 emergency, involving a lethal virus with fast-spreading global contagion. And so it was encouraging to investors that the U.S. stock market was impressively resilient throughout that health crisis.

Coronavirus cases rising in 22 U.S. states
The news comes during the Labor Day holiday weekend, where many in America host cookouts and family gatherings to mark the end of the summer. Most of the 22 states where cases are now rising are in the less-populated parts of the Midwest and South.

India Surpasses Brazil With World’s Second-Highest Virus Cases
Ruth Pollard – Bloomberg
India has the world’s second-highest number of coronavirus cases, passing Brazil on Monday to reach more than 4.2 million confirmed infections as the epidemic surges across the South Asian nation. Now the global virus hotspot, India added the largest number of cases in a day with 90,802 recorded overnight Sunday, according to data released by India’s health ministry. More than 71,000 people have died from Covid-19, making India the third-largest by number of deaths.

Airplane Cabins Could Look Different the Next Time You Fly
Angus Whitley – Bloomberg
Recaro releases seat modifications to keep passengers apart; Airlines are desperately trying to woo back wary passengers
Headrest canopies and fabric barriers between seats could start appearing in airplane cabins as the embattled industry tries to ward off the coronavirus. Airlines desperate for governments to lift travel restrictions and passengers to return are looking at ways to reassure the public that their health won’t be compromised on a flight. New-look seats and fresh cabins could be a start.

N.Y. Rate Below 1% for Month: U.K. Jobs Program: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
The Bank of England’s chief economist warned against extending a government program to retain employees during the pandemic and said that some jobs “may well not be coming back.”

Trump’s rush for a covid vaccine could make it less likely to work; The president has spent years undermining the agencies working on ‘Operation Warp Speed.’
Jennifer Reich and Seth Masket – Washington Post
President Trump clearly sees the coronavirus pandemic as a threat to his reelection and wants to show that he is making progress against it. He promised at the Republican National Convention to “produce a vaccine before the end of the year, or maybe even sooner,” boasting: “Nobody thought it could be done this fast. Normally it would be years, and we did it in a matter of a few months. We are producing them in advance so hundreds of millions of doses can be quickly available. We have a safe and effective vaccine this year, and together we will crush the virus.”

The pandemic is ruining our sleep. Experts say ‘coronasomnia’ could imperil public health
Karin Brulliard and William Wan – Washington Post
Sara Tibebu tried bubble baths. She curated playlists of low-fi beats, followed guided meditation videos and paid for virtual therapy. In desperation, she even plucked and dried lavender to make sachets to place inside her pillowcase.

Costs of India’s Covid Crisis Are Too High; Cases are rising rapidly, as is the long-term damage to the country’s potential.
Mihir Sharma – Bloomberg
India is reeling from a quadruple whammy that is practically unique even during this pandemic. First, growth has taken a hit that appears to be larger than any of its peers, with GDP shrinking 23.9% in the first post-pandemic quarter. While the economy has re-opened somewhat since then, it remains beset by supply constraints. That means — second — that inflation may have reached almost 7%, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Abhishek Gupta.

Experts predicted a coronavirus pandemic years ago. Now it’s playing out before our eyes
Dana Vigue – CNN
The CDC finds SPARS is transmitted through respiratory droplets and recommends that everyone practice hand hygiene and frequently disinfect surfaces. Experts learn that SPARS has a long incubation period — 7 to 10 days — and that it can be spread by asymptomatic carriers. Pregnant women and those with underlying conditions like asthma and emphysema are at a higher risk for complications and death. The WHO begins to recommend social distancing and isolation of suspected cases.

‘The Lockdown Killed My Father’: Farmer Suicides Add to India’s Virus Misery; Farm bankruptcies and debts have been the source of misery in India for decades. But experts say the suffering has reached new levels in the pandemic.
Karan Deep Singh – NY Times
Randhir Singh was already deeply in debt when the coronavirus pandemic struck. Looking out at his paltry cotton field by the side of a railway track, he walked in circles, hopeless. In early May, he killed himself by lying on the same track.

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Fall Below 25,000; Outbreaks on some college campuses have forced students to return to online learning
David Hall – WSJ
The U.S. reported fewer than 25,000 new coronavirus cases, the lowest daily total in nearly 12 weeks, while outbreaks on some college campuses have forced students to return to online learning. As the fall semester gets into full swing, the potential for outbreaks at colleges and universities has raised concerns even in regions where the virus’s spread has been less swift.

‘Really Diabolical’: Inside the Coronavirus That Outsmarted Science; SARS-CoV-2 is a wily virus, with mysterious origins and a powerful ability to infect and spread; ‘We underestimated it.’
Robert Lee Hotz and Natasha Khan – WSJ
The new coronavirus is a killer with a crowbar, breaking and entering human cells with impunity. It hitchhikes across continents carried on coughs and careless hands, driven by its own urgent necessity to survive.

Exchanges, OTC and Clearing

Three Seas Exchanges Conference in Kraków: Summary
Emerging Europe
The Three Seas Exchanges Conference hosted by the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW) took place in Kraków on 7 September 2020; President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda was the honorary patron of the event
The Three Seas Exchanges Conference was hosted by Marek Dietl, President of the GPW Management Board, and Izabela Olszewska, Member of the GPW Management Board. The event took place in the presence of the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda, the CEOs of the stock exchanges in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, representatives of the public administration, experts of institutions which promote sustainable development, and business practitioners.

IHS Markit and Tokyo Stock Exchange to Combine Data, Creating a Unique Japanese Securities Finance Data Set
IHS Markit Securities Finance and Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. (TSE), are combining mutually exclusive market data into a comprehensive and invaluable short selling and stock loan dataset. The combined IHS Markit and TSE dataset provides five years of historical data across 3,700 Japanese yen-denominated (JPY) equities – including inventory and lendable assets totaling 100 trillion yen and on-loan assets exceeding 12 trillion yen – with daily breakdowns of trading volume and trading value data(*) for all TSE-listed stocks.

Credit Suisse Asia Pacific risk chief departs for HKEX; Richard Wise, the current chief risk officer Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse, will join HKEX as its new group chief risk officer in November this year.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) has appointed the current chief risk officer for Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse as its new group chief risk officer effective from November. Richard Wise will take up the position overseeing HKEX Group’s risk management functions, including group credit and quantitative analysis, group cyber and technology risk management, and enterprise risk management.

Changes to Derivatives market reports
We inform you that following changes to reports will be applied with SPECTRA 6.5 release (scheduled for 14th September 2020)

Shanghai International Energy Exchange Has Released Its Notice On The Approval Of Dalian Petrochina International Warehousing & Transportation Co., Ltd. To Add Designated Delivery Storage Facility Storage Point For Crude Oil Futures
Shanghai International Energy Exchange has released its Notice on the Approval of Dalian PetroChina International Warehousing & Transportation Co., Ltd. to Add Designated Delivery Storage Facility Storage Point for Crude Oil Futures as follows:

All SGX-listed issuers can hold general meetings by electronic means till 30 June 2021
The Ministry of Law (MinLaw) has announced an extension [https://www.mlaw.gov.sg/news/press-releases/Duration-of-Alternative-Arrangements-for-Meetings-to-be-Extended] to 30 June 2021 of the duration of legislation that enables entities to hold meetings via electronic means. MAS and SGX RegCo are therefore highlighting aspects of MinLaw’s announcement that are particularly relevant to listed issuers.

EEX responds to market consultation on Hydrogen transport opened by Bundesnetzagentur
EEX calls for a clear regulation allowing hydrogen trading markets to develop on short notice. This includes unambiguous responsibilities comparable to gas markets and harmonized European standards.

EEX to enable negative prices on its natural gas spot markets
The European Energy Exchange (EEX) intends to enable negative prices on its natural gas spot markets as of 1st October 2020, following a number of key price fluctuations which have taken place in the market over the recent months. Driven by EEX’s committment to always provide its customers with state-of-the-art services and support – as market-based solutions for trading, balancing or pricing – the move will allow the exchange to handle any price scenario that may arise in the future. The activation date has been set in coordination with regulators, infrastructure operators and trading participants to ensure a smooth implementation in every system.

EEX Group Press Release – Monthly Report August 2020

August monthly figures at Eurex and EEX
OTC Clearing volumes at Eurex led the way in August with continued strong growth, while the picture was mixed across other business areas
OTC Clearing at Eurex enjoyed a very positive August with notional outstanding volumes rising 50% from 12,821 billion EUR in August 2019 to 19,266 billion EUR this year. Average daily cleared volumes rose by 26% – from 57 to 72 billion EUR – across the same period, while Interest Rate Swap volumes remained stable.

Eurex Exchange’s T7 Disaster Recovery Test on 24 October 2020
On Saturday, 24 October 2020, Eurex T7 will participate in the industry-wide Disaster Recovery (DR) test scenario organised by the Futures Industry Association (FIA). Eurex Exchange will offer a test scenario according to its T7 disaster recovery concept. This particular DR scenario simulates a complete outage of the Equinix data centre (FR2) facility.

All SGX-listed issuers can hold general meetings by electronic means till 30 June 2021
The Ministry of Law (MinLaw) has announced an extension to 30 June 2021 of the duration of legislation that enables entities to hold meetings via electronic means. MAS and SGX RegCo are therefore highlighting aspects of MinLaw’s announcement that are particularly relevant to listed issuers.

The Federation of European Securities Exchanges (FESE) is looking to recruit a Policy Adviser to work in the regulatory policy team of the organisation. We’re offering a challenging position in an international and professional organisation with Brussels as the operating base.

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Amended Broker And Trading Rules

ASX DataSphere now open to third parties
ASX’s data science platform, ASX DataSphere, is now open for third parties looking to partner with ASX to help solve their data challenges. David Raper, ASX’s Executive General Manager Trading Services, said that the platform has significantly expanded its ASX datasets since launching last year, and now includes datasets from third parties.

HKEX Appoints Group Chief Risk Officer
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is pleased to announce the appointment of Richard Wise as Group Chief Risk Officer, effective November this year. He will report to HKEX Chief Executive Charles Li, and join the company’s Management Committee. Mr Wise will oversee the Group’s risk management functions, including Group Credit and Quantitative Analysis, Group Cyber and Technology Risk Management, and Enterprise Risk Management.

Nigerian Stock Exchange To Host Capacity Building Session On Derivatives In Nigeria
The COVID-19 pandemic has metamorphosed into economic crisis for countries and financial markets that has caused volatility in price of commodities and stocks around the world. It has, therefore, become imperative for market participants to stay informed about new developments in financial products to make the right investment decisions. It is on the back of this that The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE or The Exchange) is hosting a virtual training session for prospective derivatives products market participants on Tuesday, 8 September 2020.

Appointment of Independent Directors and Establishment of Nomination/Remuneration Committees by TSE-Listed Companies
Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. has published “Appointment of Independent Directors and Establishment of Nomination/Remuneration Committees by TSE-Listed Companies”, based on corporate governance reports submitted by listed companies as of August 14, 2020.

Analysis of Disclosure in “Basic Policy Regarding Selection of Accounting Standards” [Companies whose FYs ended by Mar. 31, 2020]
Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. has released its analysis of disclosure in “Basic Policy Regarding Selection of Accounting Standards” for companies whose fiscal years ended by Mar. 31, 2020.

Expansion of FLEX Historical Service; Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. has provided historical tick data as “FLEX Historical Service”.
We will enhance the service as follows based on requests from current users and those who are considering using this service. We aim to improve the value of FLEX Historical and your convenience.

SIX Brings Global Tech Incubator And Accelerator F10 To Spain
SIX has today announced that it will be establishing its FinTech incubator and accelerator F10 in Spain, enabling an enhanced mobility of high-quality startups between Spain, Switzerland and Singapore and further supporting the long-term FinTech strategy of these countries.

Spectrum Markets Reaches Milestone Of 1 Million Trades
Spectrum Markets, the pan-European trading venue for securitised derivatives, has reached the milestone of one million trades since its launch in October 2019. The average monthly growth rate was 16%, and on average 72% of the instruments available on the venue were traded, reflecting an efficient concentration of liquidity.

NSE Indices Fixed Income Index Dashboard For The Month Ended August

MOEX Adds Innovations To Derivatives Market
On September 14, 2020, a number of important changes will be introduced on the derivatives market of the Moscow Exchange, which will provide additional opportunities for market participants and their clients. In order to increase the liquidity of traded instruments, the technology of synthetic matching of calendar spreads is implemented, which makes it possible to conclude transactions on related instruments in one order book.


Exclusive: Grab in talks with Prudential, AIA for fintech investment – sources
Anshuman Daga and Sumeet Chatterjee – Reuters
Southeast Asia’s Grab is in advanced talks with Prudential PLC (PRU.L), AIA Group Ltd (1299.HK) and others as it seeks $300 million to $500 million in investment for its financial services unit, people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Grab, which evolved from ride-hailing app operator to one-stop shop for services as varied as food delivery and insurance, aims to reach agreements as early as October, the people said.

Kaizen Reporting Acquires MDM Compliance Systems – Launch Of Kaizen’s Shareholding Disclosure Service
Leading regulatory reporting assurance firm Kaizen Reporting (Kaizen), developer of the multi-award-winning assurance service, ReportShield™, today announced the acquisition of MDM Compliance Systems, the premier service for shareholding disclosure management. The price of the transaction was not disclosed.

UK Fintech TransferWise Offers Business Account that’s Reportedly 19x Cheaper than PayPal
Omar Faridi – Crowdfund Insider
UK Fintech and stealth bank TransferWise provides an eBay PayPal fee calculator in the US. People who sell via eBay and then accept payments through PayPal will be impacted by the extra PayPal and eBay fees. That’s because the extra charges can take a significant amount of the money that sellers make, TransferWise explains.

Why consumer demand is at the heart of fintech innovation
Paige McNamee – Finextra
The ability of incumbents to innovate with the agility of disruptors has long been perceived as an uphill battle with unmatched opponents clambering to take lead position. Alex Bannister, director of strategic partnering at Nationwide Building Society, argues that rather than being borne strictly out of competition, the best innovation comes from looking to where demand lies and acting upon that need.
“I believe innovation is found in the gaps between adjacent industries and technologies. Borrowing from new areas to solve problems on your own is often the most successful way to encourage innovation.”

Why General Atlantic is betting on fintech at a time of Covid-19
Elisângela Mendonça – Financial News
General Atlantic first invested in Neon Pagamentos, a Brazilian digital bank, in 2019 in a $92m Series B round. Less than a year later, the US-based firm has led the company’s $300m Series C funding to foster the start-up’s expansion, rooted in the growing digitisation in the country.
Luiz Ribeiro, a principal at General Atlantic and a member of Neon’s board of directors, explores the company’s strengths, the potential impacts of the pandemic and new opportunities ahead in emerging markets.

Torstone & Tosho Computer Systems To Provide JASDEC Connectivity – Leading Global Bank Goes Live
Torstone Technology, a leading provider of post-trade securities and derivatives processing systems, today announced that it is collaborating with Tosho Computer Systems (TCS), a provider of financial services hosting including connectivity to every exchange in Japan, to facilitate connectivity to the Japan Securities Depository Center (JASDEC), Japan’s central securities depository.

Bloomberg veteran appointed chief operating officer at SteelEye; Rob Friend joins SteelEye as its new chief operating officer after 12 years at Bloomberg building out the product strategy for MiFID II products.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
A MiFID II product expert and former 12-year veteran of Bloomberg has been appointed chief operating officer at compliance technology provider SteelEye.

SmartStream adds derivatives to SI registry ahead of MiFID II deadline; A derivatives component has been added to the SmartStream SI registry before the MiFID II SI regime for derivatives is enforced later this month.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
Reference data utility services provider SmartStream Technologies has added a derivatives component to its systematic internaliser (SI) registry service ahead of the upcoming MiFID II deadline.

Has buy-side data management outsourcing finally come of age?
Andrew Barnett, global head of product management, RIMES – The Trade
Over the past ten years, cloud computing has played an increasingly important role in helping enterprises outsource non-core business processes and infrastructure to drive efficiencies, optimise their operations and lower costs.

ASX data science platform available to third parties; The ASX DataSphere platform can be deployed for collaboration, commercialisation or as a data-as-a-service solution.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
A data science platform developed by the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is now accessible to third parties looking to partner with the venue on data issues.


Sorry, Governments, We’re Entering the Era of Private Money
Nathaniel Whittemore – CoinDesk
Whether the U.S. government likes it or not, the world is demanding crypto-dollars and the private market is ready to supply them. Whether the U.S. government likes it or not, the world is demanding crypto-dollars and the private market is ready to supply them.

Bitcoin Should Be Regulated Like Stocks in India, Says Think Tank Founder
Omkar Godbole – Coindesk
India should legitimize bitcoin by regulating it like a corporate stock and define cryptocurrency crimes to deter misuse of the technology, according to think-tank founder Deepak Kapoor.

Tech Mahindra to offer Blockchain solutions built on Amazon Managed Blockchain Services
Economic Times
Pune: Tech Mahindra today announced that it was teaming up with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to build solutions based on blockchain technology. Tech Mahindra will introduce blockchain solutions built on Amazon Managed Blockchain to global customers using AWS and other leading organizations across the globe. The company is an AWS Partner Network (APN) Advanced Consulting Partner.

August’s Bitcoin Rally Led to Record Crypto Derivatives Volumes: Report
Paddy Baker – Coindesk
Trading volumes for crypto derivatives rebounded to record levels as bitcoin’s rally to $12,000 spurred on speculation, according to a newly released report.

Bitfinex Invests in Derivatives Exchange Built With Bitcoin’s Lightning Network
Zack Voell – Coindesk
Lightning Network-based derivatives platform LN Markets closed a pre-seed funding round joined by Bitfinex and other early-stage Bitcoin startup investors.

How Chainalysis Helps Catch Cryptocurrency Criminals
Robert Stevens – Decrypt
Blockchain analysis company Chainalysis has helped law enforcement around the world to catch cryptocurrency criminals. Some privacy advocates have raised concerns that Chainalysis’ tools undermine blockchain privacy. Chainalysis is branching out into tools for economic analysis of cryptocurrency markets.

Over 40% of Ethereum mining revenue in August came from fees
The Block
Ethereum miners generated $285.1 million in revenue in August, representing a month-over-month increase of 98.2% and a 25-month high, according to research from The Block.

Bitfinex Invests in Derivatives Exchange Built With Bitcoin’s Lightning Network
Zack Voell – Coindesk
Lightning Network-based derivatives platform LN Markets closed a pre-seed funding round joined by Bitfinex and other early-stage Bitcoin startup investors. Launched in March 2020, LN Markets has reached nearly $10 million in aggregate traded volume and has over 100 channels connected to its exchange. The platform is designed to avoid slow and costly on-chain transactions by connecting traders to a bitcoin derivatives market by “streaming” their funds through the Lightning Network, according to the project’s founders.

Bithumb Exchange’s Offices Raided Again by Korean Authorities: Report
Paddy Baker – Coindesk
South Korean officials are said to have raided the offices of cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb for a second time in a week. The Seoul Newspaper reported Tuesday that the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency’s Intelligent Crime Investigation Unit had entered Bithumb’s Seoul headquarters and seized evidence relating to a fraud investigation. The raid was again linked to a $25 million token sale hosted on Bithumb and a proposed acquisition by a Singapore platform, BTHMB, that never materialized.

Binance Unveils New Product for ‘Yield Farming’ Crypto Assets
Sebastian Sinclair – Coindesk
Popular cryptocurrency exchange Binance has released Launchpool, a way for users to make income by staking tokens for so-called yield farming. According to a Binance announcement on Sunday, users of Launchpool will be able to stake Binance’s BNB token and BUSD stablecoin, as well as the ARPA token, for interest-bearing rewards. The first project to be hosted on Launchpool is Bella Protocol (BEL), which recently raised $4M in a seed funding round led by Arrington XRP Capital.


Trump floats ‘decoupling’ US economy from China; President vows to end reliance on Beijing as he raises anti-China rhetoric in re-election campaign
Brendan Greeley – FT
Donald Trump raised the prospect of “decoupling” the US economy from China and claimed that America was experiencing “the fastest recovery in US history”, honing his economic messaging as the presidential campaign enters its final stretch.

The ‘Resistance’ Sows Distrust in the Electoral Process; The specter of tanks on the White House lawn is one more scare tactic intended to delegitimize Trump.
Gerard Baker – WSJ
We live in an age of hyperactivist journalism and supercompressed news cycles, one in which eager leakers inside the Trump administration are primed to run to the nearest reporter every time they hear something they don’t like. So the cynical reader can be forgiven a little skepticism when a story about an event that is said to have happened nearly two years ago surfaces two months before a presidential election.

Trump’s dishonest campaign is entirely on-brand
John Harwood
From the outset of Donald Trump’s presidency, Americans have told pollsters they consider him dishonest. That makes his re-election campaign entirely on-brand. In ways large and small, in targeted advertising and public remarks, Trump has made deceit the hallmark of his bid for a second term. All presidential candidates depict opponents in the worst possible light. Trump uses outright fabrications against Democratic rival Joe Biden.

IRS Chief Makes More Than $100,000 Per Year Off Trump Property, Documents Show
Alison Durkee – Forbes
TOPLINE The commissioner of the IRS—who is responsible for releasing President Trump’s tax returns to Congress—owns two rental properties at the Trump International Waikiki that he profits off of while in office, according to new documents obtained by a watchdog group in Washington, raising new questions about his withholding of Trump’s tax returns as the president goes to court to keep them hidden.

Trump Says He’d Support Probe of DeJoy Campaign Donations
Josh Wingrove – Bloomberg
Report says postmaster general encouraged illegal donations; Democrats criticize DeJoy for Postal Service changes
President Donald Trump said he’d support an investigation of allegations the Postmaster General, Louis DeJoy, illegally reimbursed employees of his logistics company for campaign donations to Republican politicians. Trump said at a White House news conference Monday that he wasn’t familiar with the allegations but “I’ll certainly know within a short period of time.”

Louis DeJoy’s rise as GOP fundraiser was powered by contributions from company workers who were later reimbursed, former employees say
Aaron C. Davis, Amy Gardner and Jon Swaine – Washington Post
Louis DeJoy’s prolific campaign fundraising, which helped position him as a top Republican power broker in North Carolina and ultimately as head of the U.S. Postal Service, was bolstered for more than a decade by a practice that left many employees feeling pressured to make political contributions to GOP candidates — money DeJoy later reimbursed through bonuses, former employees say.

2020 election: Trump and allies accused of ramping up efforts to spread disinformation and fake news; ‘He’s able to muddy the waters so thoroughly that democracy wilts on the vine,’ says professor
Ashley Parker – Independent
Since the end of last month, Donald Trump and his allies have been vigorously spreading doctored and misleading videos. On 30 August, the president retweeted footage of a black man violently pushing a white woman on a subway platform under the caption “Black Lives Matter/Antifa” – but the man was not affiliated with either group and the video was shot in October. White House social media director Dan Scavino shared a manipulated video that falsely showed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden seeming to fall asleep during a television interview, complete with a fake TV headline.

Everyone Knows It’s True; As Trump vehemently disputes reports that he has disparaged veterans, some silences speak loudly.
David Frum – The Atlantic
Donald Trump generates a lot of noise. He talks. He tweets. He is echoed and amplified by a vast claque, on TV and online, made up of Americans and foreigners, humans and bots. Never has he shouted louder than in the days since my colleague Jeffrey Goldberg reported the president’s disparaging comments about those who have fallen, been maimed, or taken prisoner in war.

Fallen Soldier Insults Give Trump a Lot to Fear; The president’s fans cherish loyalty, authority and sanctity. Now Biden has an opening to become their champion.
Cass R. Sunstein – Bloomberg
The White House has powerful reasons to fear the electoral repercussions of reported comments by President Donald Trump in which he is alleged to have described fallen soldiers as “suckers” and “losers.” Those comments threaten his most important political advantage.

Judge orders Trump administration stop ‘winding down’ census collection, processing efforts
Justin Wise – The Hill
A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to temporarily stop efforts to wind down the collection of data and processing of timelines for the 2020 census.

America Ostracizes Its Own Citizens; Thousands of Americans are giving up their U.S. citizenship. Here’s why.
Lara Williams – Bloomberg
U.S. Expats Can’t Renounce Their Citizenship Fast Enough — Andreas Kluth
The swearing in of new citizens often makes news in the U.S., especially if it happens in unusual circumstances such as one party’s national convention. Much less reported are the many citizenship renunciations by Americans, and the travails leading up to these life decisions. Almost all those giving up their U.S. nationality are expats. And for each renouncer going through the ordeal, there are countless others thinking about it. Why?

Biden Has 71.1% Chance of Winning Election: FiveThirtyEight
Leonid Bershidsky – Bloomberg
Joe Biden stands a 71.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 7 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

Trump Weighs Putting Up to $100 Million of His Cash Into Race
Jennifer Jacobs, Mario Parker, and Bill Allison – Bloomberg
Discussions follow heavy spending by campaign earlier in year; Biden reported record $365 million fundraising haul in August
President Donald Trump has discussed spending as much as $100 million of his own money on his re-election campaign, if necessary, to beat Democratic nominee Joe Biden, according to people familiar with the matter.

U.S. May Ban Cotton From Xinjiang Region of China Over Rights Concerns; The potential move, which could come as soon as Tuesday, comes amid reports of the use of forced labor in Xinjiang, where China has carried out a crackdown against mostly Muslim minorities.
Ana Swanson – NY Times
The Trump administration is weighing a ban on some or all products made with cotton from the Xinjiang region of China, a move that could come as soon as Tuesday as the United States looks to punish Beijing over alleged human rights violations, three people familiar with the matter said.


ESMA Issues Lates Double Volume Cap Data
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s securities and markets regulator, has today updated its public register with the latest set of double volume cap (DVC) data under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II).

ESMA Provides for the Option to Apply to the Annual Transparency Calculations for Non-Equity Instruments from 21 September
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s securities markets regulator, has today decided that trading venues and investment firms may postpone, for operational reasons, the application of the annual transparency calculations for non-equity instruments other than bonds to 21 September 2020.

ESMA Newsletter – Nº16
ESMA’s newsletter is back, we hope you all had a relaxing summer as we look ahead to a busy September. During July and August, ESMA has launched an assessment of the German financial reporting system following the Wirecard collapse, published the results of its third EU- wide CCP stress test and proposed members for its CCP directorate.? In this edition, we will also take a closer look at our full list of ESMA webinars and catch up on publications from the summer months.

FSB Extends Implementation Timelines For Securities Financing Transactions
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) today announced extensions to the implementation timelines for minimum haircut standards for non-centrally cleared securities financing transactions (SFTs), to ease operational burdens on market participants and authorities, and thereby assist them in focusing on priorities from the impact of COVID-19.

Investing and Trading

Thomas Cook brand could live again in imminent ‘relaunch’; An announcement about the future of the 178-year-old brand could be made in the coming days
Rhiannon Curry – The Telegraph
The Chinese conglomerate that snapped up the Thomas Cook brand after it collapsed into liquidation last summer is thought to be close to a relaunch of the company….

How a New Type of Money Helped Cause the Great Financial Crisis
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway – Bloomberg
It’s fun to talk about what money is, but often it’s hard to connect the dots and make it actually relevant to the discussion of the economy and markets. But, in this episode, we do just that. Our guest is Jacob Goldstein, a co-host of Planet Money and the author of the new book, “Money: The True Story Of A Made-Up Thing”. He explains the story of money market mutual funds, how they constituted a new form of money, and how they contributed to the Great Financial Crisis.

Business Recovery Hampered for Some by Foreign-Worker Visa Bans; Ski resorts see trouble ahead after struggling to fill summer amusement park jobs
Justin Baer and Michelle Hackman – WSJ
Jerry Huskey, a senior staff member at Ober Gatlinburg, spent his summer struggling to hire enough staff to operate its amusement park and he is dreading the same challenge as the winter ski season approaches.

These Are the Bets on a Steeper U.S. Yield Curve
Vivien Lou Chen -Bloomberg
Data to shape long-term outlook for steepener bets, breakevens; ECB policy decision to also play key role during shorter week
Investors unwinding wagers on a steepening of the U.S. yield curve will get a chance to rethink their positions this week, with consumer-price data and Treasury auctions providing potential catalysts to shift long-end rates.

U.S. Stocks Could Fall Further With ‘Three-Day Rule’ in Play
Joanna Ossinger – Bloomberg
Fundstrat’s Sluymer sees potential washout of ‘panic sellers’; Sundial cautions Nasdaq tends to fall rapidly from peaks
The selloff in U.S. stocks may have at least one day more to go if history is a guide, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC. The S&P 500 has fallen 4.3% over the last two sessions, though remains up 53% from its March lows at the height of fears about the coronavirus. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6.4% over Thursday and Friday. Given those substantive declines and the three-day Labor Day weekend, technical strategist Robert Sluymer says there’s a risk of a further downdraft.

Where Danger Lurks in the Big Tech Rally; Unbridled optimism, the impact of options, and the speed and scale of the gains have left the rest of the stock market in the dust
James Mackintosh – WSJ
It’s been a terrible two days to be an Apple shareholder. Yet, after falling 8% on Thursday and swinging wildly to end flat on Friday, the price is all the way back down to where it was, um, two weeks ago. Investors might reasonably worry that this is the start of a bigger correction. There was far too much enthusiasm for the big disruptive technology stocks, so prices could go down a lot more. Yet, there are still good reasons for liking companies whose growth has been helped rather than hindered by the pandemic.

Which Stock-Market Sectors Should You Invest In?; Tech stocks have fueled the current bull market. Now, some financial pros say midcaps and non-U.S. holdings may be ready to push the market higher.
Simon Constable – WSJ
Stock-market sectors generally don’t move in strict synchronization. Some will lead as others lag behind, and a key question for investors is which sector is poised to move up fastest next.

Exclusive: Exxon downsizes global empire as Wall Street worries about dividend
Jennifer Hiller – Reuters
Ill-timed bets on rising demand have Exxon Mobil Corp facing a shortfall of about $48 billion through 2021, according to a Reuters tally and Wall Street estimates, a situation that will require the top U.S. oil company to make deep cuts to its staff and projects.

Record Gold Prices Create Insurance Headache for Vault Keepers; Surging prices lift the value of many stashes above coverage limits.
Eddie Spruce – Bloomberg
Surging demand for gold means business is booming at the companies that store and protect the world’s bullion. But record prices come with a catch: All those piles of yellow bars are suddenly much trickier to insure.

Railcar Makers Cut Costs as Pandemic Adds to Industry Woes; Finance chief at Trinity Industries is considering outsourcing, and plans to save $70 million through layoffs and administrative cuts this year
Kristin Broughton – WSJ
Railcar manufacturers are slashing costs as the pandemic deals another blow to an industry already struggling with an oversupply of cars and declining freight traffic.

When Buying Muni Bonds, Investors Should Look Beyond Their Own States; Municipal bond returns can vary greatly from state to state. Here’s why—and what investors should do about it.
Derek Horstmeyer – WSJ
Many investors look at municipal bonds and make the same mistake: They think they’re all the same—an investment option with tax-exempt income features, almost zero risk and the same low yield. Investors might be surprised to learn there can be large differences in munis, both in their coupon rates and in the returns of the mutual funds that invest in them. Currently, average returns for muni funds in some states can differ by as much as a full point, which over time can add up to a tidy sum.

Financial Times Sharpens Editorial Offering For Investors With Dedicated ETF Hub
Today, the Financial Times and TrackInsight, a global data and analytics platform, announce a new section on FT.com designed to provide readers with the latest independent insights on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Derby’s Take: Repo Market Woes Unlikely to Return but IOER Tweak Looms
Michael S. Derby – WSJ
The Federal Reserve has an enormous number of things to worry about as the coronavirus pandemic rages on. The repo market, by and large, is no longer one of them.

What Is Contango and Backwardation? For investors in commodities funds that hold futures contracts, these terms are important. Here is what they mean.
Simon Constable – WSJ
Investors in commodities funds that hold futures contracts will hear or read the words contango and backwardation. The terms are apt to confuse even those with some Wall Street experience, but understanding them is vital for investors in commodities.

Closed-End Funds Are Trying to Make a Comeback; The disrespected form of mutual funds might be getting a second life
Randall Smith – WSJ
Closed-end funds, the has-beens of the mutual-fund world, are getting a chance for a second life. The flood of investment dollars into low-cost index funds has challenged many of Wall Street’s most expensive offerings, few more so than closed-end funds. In the decade after the financial crisis, assets under management doubled in stock and bond mutual funds but remained stagnant in closed-end funds, where the total in July stood at $254.7 billion. Annual average new-issue volume, meanwhile, fell from $13.2 billion in the decade ended in 2013 to $2 billion for the next five years, according to Dealogic.

Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance

Asset management industry must ‘do more’ to tackle racial and climate inequalities – MP
David Brenchley – InvestmentWeek
The UK investment industry has been urged to “do more” to tackle racial inequalities, as well as to “protect our climate and the societies that depend on it” by City Minister John Glen. Glen said he welcomed steps taken by the industry on sustainability and responsible investing issues, but said there were more changes that could be implemented for the good of “the environment… society… the economy, but also… for you and your clients”.

How to Navigate the Fog of Sustainable Investing; Carbon emissions is a rare area where useful comparisons between companies and sectors on environmental, social and governance performance are possible
Stephen Wilmot – WSJ
Can environmental, social and governance risks be quantified? With the notable exception of carbon emissions, probably not—but that doesn’t mean the exercise isn’t useful for investors. Interest in so-called sustainable investment is ballooning. One sign is the money given to mutual funds: In the first half of 2020, net flows into sustainable funds totaled $20.9 billion in the U.S., according to Morningstar, compared with $21.4 billion for 2019 as a whole—which was itself four times the previous record for a calendar year.

Coal’s Moment in the Sun, Courtesy of Natural Gas; As natural gas prices continue to rise, coal’s share of electricity generation is expected to tick up in 2021
Jinjoo Lee – WSJ
Coal is on its way out of the electrical grid, but not without some dying flickers. Cheap, cleaner natural gas had been eating away coal’s market share for some time. But with natural gas prices edging toward $2.5 per million British thermal units, nearly 70% higher than the lowest point this year, the tables are about to be turned.

U.S. shale producers race for federal permits ahead of presidential election
Jennifer Hiller – Reuters
Oil producers in the top U.S. shale fields are stockpiling drilling permits on federal land ahead of the November U.S. presidential election, concerned that a win by Democratic candidate Joe Biden could lead to a clamp-down on oilfield activity.

Secretive Billionaire Hedge Fund Firm Pledges Money to Fight Racial Injustice
Nishant Kumar – Bloomberg
George Floyd’s death was a wake-up call, hedge fund firm says; Commits to spending millions of dollars over next five years
Hedge fund manager Chris Rokos’s investment firm has waded into the raging debate on racial discrimination sparked by the killing of George Floyd and vowed to use its money to help fight the injustice.

Stricter 2030 Climate Goal For EU To Be Unveiled Next Week
Ewa Krukowska – Bloomberg
EU Commission is set to propose 55% carbon-reduction target; New goal is part of Green Deal to eliminate emissions by 2050
The European Commission will likely unveil a stricter 2030 emissions-cut target next week, paving the way for fraught negotiations between governments and lawmakers over accelerating a green shift that will require sweeping overhauls in the functioning of the continent’s economy.

China Offers Signs for Lenient Launch of National Carbon Trading
Bloomberg News
Draft plan less strict than existing regional pilot schemes; Gas power exempted from payment for excessive emissions
China’s plans to control emissions with the launch of a national carbon market, which will be the world’s biggest, may start off more fossil-fuel friendly than its existing regional systems.

Maybe Capitalism Isn’t the Real Culprit Behind Climate Change; A lack of trust in government is undermining long-term policies to tackle global warming.
Akshat Rathi – Bloomberg
If you think long and hard about the climate crisis, you may (a) get depressed and (b) agree with many activists who say the only solution to the problem is overthrowing capitalism. Or you may conclude, like Andrew McAfee does, that we don’t have the right kind of capitalism.


Bankers Hit the Limits on Working From Home; After the pandemic, many finance workers in New York, London and elsewhere will probably just get a bit more flexibility in how they work.
Elisa Martinuzzi – Bloomberg
As the financial behemoths of Wall Street and the City of London reassess how they’ll operate in the post-pandemic world (assuming we get there), change is certain. Even with Covid-19 in check, staff working away from an office building will no longer be an exception. Banks will be thinking about saving on their huge urban real-estate costs, and employees about a better work-life balance.

Wellington Management selects 30-year veteran as new chief executive; Jean Hynes, managing partner at Wellington, will replace chief executive officer Brendan Swords upon his retirement in June 2021.
Annabel Smith – The Trade
Boston-based Wellington Management has confirmed one of its veteran portfolio managers will succeed its current chief executive, Brendan Swords, as he prepares to retire. Jean Hynes will take on the role in June 2021 after almost 30 years with the investment manager. Having first joined Wellington in 1991, Hynes has worked her way up from an analyst to portfolio manager, and has most recently served as one of the firm’s three managing partners since 2014.

RISK QUANTUM Credit Suisse, UBS counterparty exposures ballooned in Q2
Louie Woodall, Lorenzo Migliorato – Risk.net
Top Swiss banks’ exposures to derivatives and securities financing transactions (SFT) counterparties leapt over the first half of this year, though the build-up did little to change the overall riskiness of their portfolios.

Citigroup Feuds With Hedge Funds Over Botched Payment; Bank’s relationship with fund clients unraveled over a dispute about Revlon debt and an erroneous $900 million payment
Matt Wirz, Becky Yerak and Alexander Gladstone – WSJ
Citigroup Inc. C 1.98% and a big hedge-fund client are locked in an uncharacteristically public feud that has embroiled top executives at both firms and laid bare a $900 million mistaken payment by the bank.

JPMorgan Doubles Investment Banker Presence in Offices
Viren Vaghela – Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is doubling the proportion of investment bankers coming in to its New York and London offices as Wall Street firms inch back toward normal work arrangements. The U.S. bank requested that 50% of its dealmakers be in the office on a given workday, up from 25% previously, according to a person familiar with the matter. Bankers will work from home or the office on alternating weeks, according to the person, who requested anonymity to discuss private staff moves.

Hedge Fund’s Buying Spree During Credit Slump Fuels 36% Return
Bei Hu – Bloomberg
Ercil’s ARCM deployed 80% of $1.6 billion fund during selloff; Most of it went into developed market investment-grade credit
Distressed-assets specialist Alp Ercil went on a billion-dollar buying spree in March and April, bargain-hunting amid the indiscriminate selloff in credit markets, a person familiar with the matter said.

Ex-Lazard Banker Thinks Boring Is Beautiful; The big guns of private equity have been driving asset sales and consolidation in the unloved industry. Ageas may not escape the trend.
Chris Hughes – Bloomberg
The unloved insurance sector is proving a rich territory for acquirers. Apollo Global Management Inc., Blackstone Group Inc., Carlyle Group, KKR & Co. — the big guns of private equity have been conspicuously active in this industry lately. Now an investor consortium backed by former Lazard Ltd. banker Mark Pensaert has emerged as suitor to Belgian insurer Ageas SA, capitalized at 7 billion euros ($8.3 billion). A sector facing disruption clearly also offers opportunities.

‘Active’ Stock ETFs Draw Billions in New Assets; It’s too soon to tell whether these are good investments. But it is giving investors a greater number of choices.
Leonard Sloane – WSJ
It has been a long time coming, but investors now have access to a growing number of actively managed equity ETFs. Exchange-traded funds typically are passive—they track a major market index like the S&P 500. According to ETF.com, more than 97% of the assets in U.S.-listed funds are invested in passive ETFs. Until recently, most of the active funds were on the fixed-income side.


Powerful Typhoon Haishen leaves two dead, four missing and over 100 injured
The Japan Times
A powerful typhoon left two people dead, four missing and 108 injured Monday in Japan as it battered almost the whole of the country’s southwestern main island of Kyushu with violent winds, causing massive blackouts and disrupting transportation and some mobile networks.

Jump in Hottest Hong Kong IPO Makes Founder China’s Second Richest
Richard Macauley and Jeanny Yu – Bloomberg
Retail portion of Nongfu deal was 1,148 times oversubscribed; Founder got wealth boost after the IPO of Wantai in April
It was the hottest IPO in town. Now Nongfu Spring Co.’s stock surge has turned its founder into China’s third-richest person. Shares of the bottled-water maker jumped as much as 85% and closed up 54% in Hong Kong. The debut was the city’s fourth best on record among firms that raised more than $1 billion.

California Faces New Risk of Blackouts This Week; PG&E warns of wind-driven power shutoffs to reduce risk of wildfires starting Monday
Katherine Blunt – WSJ
PG&E Corp. warned that it may need to cut power late Monday night in parts of Northern California to reduce wildfire risks, a day after the state narrowly averted rolling blackouts to relieve strain on its electric grid during a heat wave.

Record cold temperatures and a rare September snow arrive this week
Tyler Mauldin, CNN Meteorologist
An early taste of winter with record cold temperatures and snow — yes, snow — is on the way for the Rocky Mountains. A strong September cold front is set to drop out of Canada in the beginning of the week, making its presence known from the Dakotas all the way down to Texas by Wednesday.

Malaysia’s Currency Faces Two Key Risks After Beating Asia Peers
David Finnerty – Bloomberg
Fixed-income review announcement to be released on Sept. 24; Rate cut from Bank Negara Malaysia will undermine currency
The Malaysian ringgit has defied the odds to outperform most of its Asian peers. Now investors will be watching to see if it survives the trials of September. A three-month rally in the currency could come to a halt when FTSE Russell announces a decision on whether it’ll retain ringgit bonds in its World Government Bond Index. A lesser risk is also brewing in the form of an https://bloom.bg/3byBwIG

China Plans Caps on Ant’s Lending Rates to Control Risk
Bloomberg News
China to cap consumer lending at 15.4% annual interest rate; Consumer lending has become Ant’s biggest revenue source
China’s financial regulators plan to cap the interest rates Ant Group can charge borrowers on quick consumer loans, a move that could curb the financial technology giant’s biggest revenue driver as it prepares for a mega initial public offering.

Germany Is Re-Engineering Europe’s Most Important River; The Rhine is Germany’s main economic artery. Keeping it flowing may require new boats, once-taboo locks, and even changing the current of the river itself.
Elisa Miebach – Bloomberg
Two shipping brothers on Germany’s Rhine faced a dilemma that has become increasingly common on Europe’s most important river.

Floods Washed Away More Than 25% of Nigeria’s Rice Harvest
Ruth Olurounbi – Bloomberg
Two million tons lost in Kebbi as rivers break banks; Nigeria is the world’s second-largest importer of the grain
Floods washed away at least two million tons of rice in Nigeria, the second-largest importer of the grain. That is more than 25% of the previously projected national output of 8 million tons, according to estimates by a farmers’ organization.

Australian Media’s Last Reporters in China Flee Amid Tensions
Jason Scott and James Mayger – Bloomberg
Two journalists spent five days under consular protection; Australian diplomats negotiated permission for them to leave
Two Australian journalists based in China have fled the country as diplomatic relations between the trading partners worsen. Bill Birtles, the Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s Beijing correspondent, and Mike Smith, the Australian Financial Review’s Shanghai correspondent, left the country after Chinese police demanded interviews with them, according to Smith. The men were initially banned from leaving and spent five days under consular protection until Australian diplomats could negotiate their departure.

Immigration to New York City Declines, Amplifying Economic Concerns; Tighter federal policies and pandemic-related delays in visas slow inflow of transplants
Kate King – WSJ
New York City’s economy depends on immigrants, but at a time when it needs all the help it can get, the flow of new residents from overseas is slowing. Immigration to New York City dropped 45% between 2016 and 2019, with about 34,000 immigrants moving to the city last year compared with 62,000 in 2016, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau population estimates by William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. City officials and immigration advocates say tighter federal immigration policies and delays in processing visa applications during the pandemic have reduced the flow of transplants.

New Zealand Financial Markets Authority: Scam Targets China-NZ Money Transfers During COVID-19
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) is warning people to be wary of scammers attempting to impersonate the FMA as part of a money transfer scam. On 5 August, the FMA was contacted by a woman who had tried to transfer a significant amount of money from China to New Zealand, saying she and her family had been “stranded in New Zealand” due to COVID-19 and had needed the money for living expenses.

Billionaire Moves His Fortune to Switzerland from Caribbean
Benjamin Stupples – Bloomberg
U.K.’s Anthony Bamford previously kept shares in Curacao; He and his family control construction-equipment maker JCB
Anthony Bamford, the billionaire chairman of excavator maker JCB, has transferred his shares in the firm’s Caribbean holding companies to Switzerland, altering arrangements that fostered his family’s fortune for decades.

Japan Pressing Ahead With Olympics Planning Despite Virus
Ayai Tomisawa and Emi Nobuhiro – Bloomberg
Gov’t, organizing committee working to hold games next year; IOC exec has said Olympics to be held regardless of virus
Japan is pressing ahead with preparations for the Tokyo Olympics to be held next year even though there is no clear sign the Covid-19 pandemic will be under control by that time.

Palm Oil Growers Seek Prisoners to End Virus-Driven Labor Crunch
Anuradha Raghu – Bloomberg
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the Malaysian palm oil industry into a labor crunch so severe that it’s turning to prisoners for help. Producers of the tropical oil are reaching out to prison departments in search of locals for work in the palm industry that’s considered dirty, difficult and dangerous, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a growers’ group that represents 40% of the palm-planted area in the country.

Junk Bond Managers Join Forces to Reform Swedish Issuance Market
Leo Laikola and Hanna Hoikkala – Bloomberg
Two of Sweden’s biggest high-yield fund managers, with combined assets of $2.5 billion, have started a new program to make sure investors know exactly what they’re buying when they move into a rebounding market for risky debt sales.


U.K.’s Frost Demands ‘Realism’ from EU as Brexit Deadline Looms
Thomas Penny – Bloomberg
David Frost, the U.K.’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned progress must be made in talks starting Tuesday if an agreement is to be reached in time for Britain’s final separation from the bloc at the end of the year.

Brexit back in crisis: EU warns UK over divorce pact
Guy Faulconbridge, Elizabeth Piper, William James – Reuters
The European Union told Britain on Monday that there would be no trade deal if it tried to tinker with the Brexit divorce treaty, raising the prospect of a tumultuous end-of-year finale to the saga.

As Brexit Deadlines Loom, the Posturing and Bickering Flare Again; Prime Minister Boris Johnson is threatening to cut off negotiations by Oct. 15 if there is no progress. The European Union says the British are not negotiating.
Mark Landler and Stephen Castle – NY Times
Bellicose threats to walk away from the bargaining table. Defiant assertions of British sovereignty and promises not to become a “client state” of Europe. Ominous talk of a hard border rising again across Ireland.

An update on ‘Brexit & the City – the impact so far’
Eivind Friis Hamre & William Wright via NewFinancial.org
This updated report provides the most comprehensive analysis yet of the impact of Brexit on the City and the wider banking and finance industry. More than 330 firms in banking and finance have moved or are moving business, staff, assets or legal entities away from the UK to the EU – and these numbers are likely to increase in the near future.

Day one of a no-deal Brexit: swaps and chaperones; Banks, trading platforms, repositories tee up EU entities – and dread the repapering crunch that would follow
Stephen Lee – Risk.net
Picture the scene: it’s late in the afternoon on March 29, 2019. An ashen-faced, sleep-deprived UK politician – the country’s Brexit secretary – exits a meeting with his European Union counterpart, Michel Barnier, to tell waiting cameras that last-ditch efforts to salvage a deal on the UK’s withdrawal have failed. It’s the scenario everyone had feared – a crash-and-burn Brexit, in which the UK suddenly goes from being part of the world’s biggest free-trade zone to an outsider with no special

Currency Markets Are Making a Dangerous Brexit Bet; They appear to have decided that Boris Johnson’s threats don’t need to be taken seriously.
John Authers – Bloomberg
Maybe it is a sign of normality finally returning after the pandemic that Brexit is back in the headlines, and that politicians feel they have the license to put it there. But for now, the market is making a dangerous bet that the positioning from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson doesn’t need to be taken too seriously.

Boris Johnson Covets Control of State Aid, Rattling Brexit Talks and Party Doctrine; Trade negotiations with EU stall over British wish to support businesses at will, a shift from Thatcher era
Max Colchester, Laurence Norman – WSJ
For decades, Britain’s Conservative Party politicians decried the European Union for its supposed aversion to free markets. Now trade negotiations that will define the future relationship between the U.K. and the EU from next year have stalled, in large part because Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government wants the freedom to ignore EU rules limiting state subsidies of private companies.


A farmer planted over 2 million sunflowers to provide a respite during this rough year
Lauren M Johnson – CNN
Everyone could use a little sunshine in their life right now, so a Wisconsin farmer decided that’s what he was going to do, and planted more than 2 million sunflowers in his fields. Scott Thompson’s family has been farming in Kenosha County for more than 70 years, and this is the first year that flowers are decorating the landscape. Usually, the pick-your-own farm consists of strawberries in summer and raspberries and pumpkins in the fall.

Chartered Institute For Securities & Investment And Chartered Insurance Institute To Both Occupy ‘Walkie Talkie’
Two of the largest global financial services professional bodies have today announced that they will occupy space on the same floor of an iconic London office building. The Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment and Chartered Insurance Institute have both reviewed their property footprints following the pandemic in 2020 and taken a decision for the CII to sub-let part of the CISI’s existing office space at the prime location of 20 Fenchurch Street (known as the ‘walkie talkie’) from early 2021.

French Wine Volumes to Recover After Record-Early Grape Harvest
Rudy Ruitenberg – Bloomberg
Burgundy grape picking has earliest start in six centuries; Coronavirus prompting some growers to reduce volumes
France is forecasting a recovery in wine production this year as volumes increase in all main growing areas, following a record-early start to grape harvests in regions including Champagne and Burgundy.

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Past JLN Newsletters

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